Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$20.78-6.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.23 → 2.23 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCFT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete and integrate Marine Products acquisition | A supporting condition in MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition fully integrated by end of 2026. | Intact | Acquisition integration delays or fails in 2026 | Acquisition completed 2026-05-15; no integration delays reported 8-K confirms Marine Products acquisition completed May 15, 2026. Q4 earnings beat supports operational stability. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MCFT is a cyclical marine-products business with a growth angle from its completed acquisition of Marine Products Corporation. The long-term thesis is on watch: fiscal 2026 revenue exceeded management’s stated goal, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes MCFT as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.73 premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative at -0.56, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified, with low fragility rather than a full expensive, weak, and turbulent combination.
Near-term, recent results include an earnings beat, and company momentum improved by 30.8 points. Management delivered fiscal 2026 revenue of $348.9 million against a stated $312 million goal, while the acquisition added $33.3 million in incremental sales in fiscal 2026’s fourth quarter. Performance is still weak relative to the industry cohort, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the evidence puts near-term miss risk in the quiet tier.
The multi-year view depends on whether the acquired business supports continued growth and whether management sustains execution after exceeding its revenue goal. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strong results and guidance from BC, THO, and PII would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MCFT combines evidence of improving momentum and successful revenue execution with weak relative performance, elevated risk, and an expensive overall value assessment. The thesis remains on watch and hinges on sustained execution, acquisition contribution, and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook Concluded Nelson, “What gives me confidence is that these results were earned, not market-driven.” “The Company’s outlook is as follows: • For the six-month Transition Period we expect consolidated net sales to be between $287 million and $291 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $29 million and $32 million, and Adjusted Earnings per share between $0.66 and $0.76.”
EPS at least $1.65 in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.65 per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.50 in Q2 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.35 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.65 per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 10, 2026-0.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $312 million revenue in fiscal 2026 | MasterCraft aims for $312 million revenue in fiscal 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $290 million in FY26 | Revenue: $129.936M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $312 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 2026129,936,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s outlook is as follows: • For full year fiscal 2026, we now expect consolidated net sales to be $312 million, with Adjusted EBITDA of $40 million, and Adjusted Earnings per share of $1.65.” “The Company’s outlook is as follows: • For the six-month Transition Period we expect consolidated net sales to be between $287 million and $291 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $29 million and $32 million, and Adjusted Earnings per share between $0.66 and $0.76.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.00 → $2.23 · observed estimates
$0.62B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.00 | $621,638,860 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.09 | $647,066,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.09 | $647,066,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.09 | $647,066,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.15 | $637,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.23 | $636,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.