MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.15+3.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCFT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 49.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
MCFT — director transition
Dated 2026-05-15
Director — Mr. Rollins, Mr. Macgregor, Stephen E. Lewis: Three new directors were added to the board as part of a merger agreement.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and execution in the market.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reported at or above $312 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $300 million.
Why it matters: Court cases could affect the acquisition and MasterCraft's work. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifCourt decisions are in favor of MasterCraft in current legal cases.
Less concerning ifCourt rulings are against MasterCraft. This causes delays or changes in the deal.
Why it matters: This deal could improve MasterCraft's market position. It may also help their finances.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the deal is done and part of MasterCraft.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or canceled. This will affect growth plans.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how healthy MasterCraft's finances are and its growth path.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected, showing strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings are worse than expected, raising worries about growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,769 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A better EBITDA margin means better cost control. This helps profits in the long run.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is above 13.7% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin falls or stays under 13.7%. This shows problems in operations.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve MasterCraft's brand and market position. It may create growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes on time. It gets all approvals from regulators and shareholders.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close. It has big delays due to issues with regulators or shareholders.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help MasterCraft's brand. It may reach more customers.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close after the shareholder meeting on May 12, 2026.
Worry ifThe deal fails if rules or shareholder needs are not met.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong business performance. It shows demand for MasterCraft's products.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 revenue reported at or above $312 million by the end of the fiscal year.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 revenue is under $300 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: The lawsuit could affect how well the acquisition works. It may also change MasterCraft's operations and investor trust.
Worry ifLitigation ends well for MasterCraft. This allows for smooth integration.
Less concerning ifLawsuits can cause delays or issues with the acquisition.
Why it matters: Keeping this spending level shows smart use of money and helps growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is reported at or below $8 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $9 million for fiscal 2026.