Microchip Technology (MCHP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$84.15-3.93%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $84.15. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 MCHP trades at 72× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median, but our blended $71 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $94–$135. Note: our $71 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($94–$135). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
$94.00 – $135.00 (median $120.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 116% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.20/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $120.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $17.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $26.01 | 19.4 | 1.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $80.31 | 50.3 | 1.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $85.84 | 73.4 | 1.17 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $90.58 | 10.5 | 8.64 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $63.97 | 54.7 | 1.17 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $86.70 | 73.4 | 1.18 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $22.31 | 50.3 | 0.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $160.17 | 10.5 | 15.28 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $9.50 | 50.3 | 0.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $202.71 | 10.5 | 19.34 | guidance | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.