Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.85-13.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.57 → 4.59 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCHP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures remain below $100 million in FY 2026 | The company controls capital spending below $100 million in 2026. | Broken | Capex exceeds $100 million in FY 2026 | Capital expenditures: $13.9M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: <= $100 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Aug 6, 202613,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical semiconductor recovery thesis, supported by improving demand, rising revenue, and margin recovery. The long-term thesis is intact, though the overall signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to MCHP being cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial peer premium. The expectations-gap measure is negative, and the snapshot labels pricing as justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clearly stretched set of assumptions.
Near term, revenue growth and gross margin have strengthened, and management is on track with those priorities; capex discipline is mixed. The next call remains a risk because a guidance cut would matter, while the estimated miss risk is low and peer misses and a past deep miss warrant attention.
The multi-year view depends on demand recovery and inventory normalization continuing to support revenue and margins. Near term, a guidance cut is the clearest negative scenario; rate cuts and stabilization among major technology companies are potential tailwinds.
Over the next one to three years, MCHP’s recovery has support from recent execution, but the mixed signal, management transition, and conflicting valuation indicators make continued delivery important. The long-term thesis is intact, with demand and guidance as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin stays above 60%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 60% |
Gross margin: 63.24% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=62.75%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 6, 202663.238365 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Improving factory utilization and operational leverage are expected to support further progress toward our long-term margin objectives.”” “We now expect lower inventory and improving demand to support higher internal factory utilization, which will further drive operating leverage and progress toward our long‑term gross and operating margin objectives.”” Gross profit was $938.900 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating margin near 33.75% | Profit margin is guided near 34%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 30% | Operating margin: 22.68% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~33.75%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 6, 202622.684717 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Improving factory utilization and operational leverage are expected to support further progress toward our long-term margin objectives.”” “We now expect lower inventory and improving demand to support higher internal factory utilization, which will further drive operating leverage and progress toward our long‑term gross and operating margin objectives.”” Gross profit was $938.900 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $1.46 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 | Microchip grows revenue to about $1.46 billion in Q4 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.31 billion in Q4 2026 | Revenue: $1.485B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.46B. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 6, 20261,484,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.20 → $4.59 · observed estimates
$7.20B → $7.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.16 | $7,187,766,172 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.20 | $7,203,583,450 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.17 | $7,203,339,856 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.17 | $7,203,339,856 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.19 | $7,198,317,570 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.17 | $7,203,339,856 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.19 | $7,198,317,570 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.17 | $7,203,339,856 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.19 | $7,198,317,570 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.42 | $7,374,614,620 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.42 | $7,374,614,620 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.54 | $7,423,035,130 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.18 | $7,218,234,593 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.58 | $7,450,976,533 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.58 | $7,450,976,533 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.57 | $7,447,977,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.59 | $7,459,827,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.59 | $7,459,827,599 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.59 | $7,459,827,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.59 | $7,459,827,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.59 | $7,459,829,417 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.59 | $7,459,829,417 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.59 | $7,459,829,417 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.59 | $7,466,647,599 | 17 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.