Microchip Technology (MCHP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.34-3.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCHP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 30.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
MCHP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Chief Operating Officer — Richard J. Simoncic: Resigned to become CEO of another company.
Why it matters: Higher factory use helped lift gross margin to 63.8%. Further gains would support management's goal of margin above 60%.
Supportive ifFiscal Q2 non-GAAP gross margin is above the 67.0% top of guidance.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 non-GAAP gross margin is below the 66.0% low end of guidance.
Why it matters: Management guided to $1.589 billion to $1.618 billion in sales. A higher result would extend the recent demand recovery.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 earnings release, fiscal Q2 net sales exceed $1.618 billion.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 net sales fall below $1.589 billion.
Why it matters: MCHP's signal changed from mild favorable to mixed. The next update can show whether this change lasts.
Watch forThe next signal update returns to a mild favorable label or a more favorable one.
Also watch forThe next signal update stays mixed or turns less favorable.
Why it matters: Design wins doubled to 12 in one quarter. More wins would show that customer interest in data center links is growing.
Supportive ifManagement reports more than 12 PCIe Gen6 design-win programs in the next update.
Worry ifManagement reports 12 or fewer programs, or says the count fell from 12.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,238 loss on $10,000 · 32.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Inventory fell to 175 days in June, while bookings stayed strong. More progress would support the recovery and higher factory use.
Supportive ifThe next results show inventory days below 175. Bookings have a book-to-bill ratio above 1.
Worry ifInventory days rise above 175, or the book-to-bill ratio falls to 1 or less.