Microchip Technology (MCHP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.17+1.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCHP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCHP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Chief Operating Officer — Richard J. Simoncic: Resigned to become CEO of another company.
Why it matters: The CEO change may impact plans and stability. Watching this will help predict future results.
Watch forGood performance metrics are expected in the next quarter after the CEO change.
Also watch forPerformance metrics are declining. This may show problems from the leadership change.
Why it matters: Staying under this limit shows smart spending while growing.
Supportive ifSpending is below $100 million.
Worry ifSpending is above $100 million.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategy could affect growth and execution in the near term.
Watch forOperations get better with the new CEO.
Also watch forOperations get worse or stay the same after the change.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels can improve cash flow. They also make operations more efficient.
Supportive ifInventory levels decrease by more than $20 million in Q2.
Worry ifInventory levels increase or decrease less than $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Successful completion would strengthen the balance sheet and support growth plans. It shows investor confidence.
Supportive ifCompletion of the offering and use of proceeds for debt repayment.
Worry ifThe offering does not get enough interest or is called off.
Why it matters: This offering may change how the company raises money. It can also dilute stock, affecting investors.
Watch forThe offering was completed successfully with good terms and little impact on stock price.
Also watch forThe market reacted badly. This caused a big drop in stock price after the offering.
Why it matters: Fewer inventory days show better demand and efficiency. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifInventory days drop below 175 days in the next report.
Worry ifInventory days increase or stay above 185 days.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is doing and market trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results with positive guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak results with negative guidance.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Microchip's performance. It signals a broader slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if the strong demand recovery continues. It reflects management's confidence in growth.
Supportive ifNet sales guidance for Q2 exceeds $1.589 billion, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifGuidance is below $1.589 billion. This shows demand recovery is getting weaker.
Why it matters: Keeping capex low can improve cash flow. High capex could signal trouble managing costs.
Supportive ifCapex reported below $100 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifCapex reported above $110 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if demand recovery continues and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifNet sales guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 is above $1.442 billion.
Worry ifNet sales guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 is below $1.442 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin above 60% shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported above 60% for the next quarter.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported below 60% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: More design wins show strong demand in data centers. This can boost future revenue.
Supportive ifPCIe Gen6 design wins reported at 24 or more programs.
Worry ifPCIe Gen6 design wins reported below 12 programs.
Why it matters: New leaders can change how a company works. This can impact how well the company does.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new CEO or key executive to replace the COO.
Less concerning ifThere have been no new executive announcements since the COO left.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$237 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $458 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,065 loss on $10,000 · 30.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.