Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marchex Inc (MCHX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.27-7.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.16 → 0.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCHX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin >= 10% | A primary condition in Marchex Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=10%. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small, loss-making business attempting to improve revenue and margins, so the thesis is closer to a turnaround than a durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, risk is elevated, and confidence has moved to medium.
The evidence snapshot does not provide a valuation measure or a specific account of market expectations, so whether MCHX is cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. The muted reaction to recent results does not establish that weak performance is fully reflected in expectations.
Near term, results remain at risk after an earnings miss, and another guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Over the multi-year view, Archenia adds to the business, but the stated margin and revenue goals have shown mixed progress: adjusted EBITDA rose only modestly, while reported revenue declined year over year even as combined revenue improved after the acquisition.
The key test is whether combined revenue continues to grow sequentially and whether adjusted EBITDA margins reach management’s 2026 goal of at least 10%. The next guidance update is a near-term swing factor; easier interest rates and strength among sector peers could help the backdrop, but do not resolve MCHX’s execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on turning the Archenia addition into sustained revenue growth and stronger margins. Weak recent results and elevated execution risk leave that progress unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The recent acquisition of Archenia should enhance earnings. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition not closed by end of 2026-Q3 |
Acquisition closed 2026-07-01 vs 2026-Q3 target Form 8-K confirms 100% Archenia acquisition closed July 1, 2026. Q3 revenue forecast includes Archenia integration. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sequential quarterly revenue increases in 2026 | A primary condition in Marchex Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Sequential quarterly revenue increases throughout 2026. | Intact | Any quarter in 2026 shows revenue decline from prior quarter | Revenue: $11.002M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sequential quarterly revenue increases throughout 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202611,002,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.16 → $0.16 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.16 | $69,394,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.