Marchex Inc (MCHX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.27-7.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCHX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
MCHX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Marchex, Inc. (“Marchex” or the "Company") is issuing an Earnings Release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purp…
Why it matters: Management named 10% or higher adjusted EBITDA margins as a 2026 goal. The next outlook can show whether revenue growth and lower costs support it.
Supportive ifThe first 2027 outlook shows adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 10%.
Worry ifThe first 2027 outlook shows adjusted EBITDA margins below 10%, or gives no path to reach 10%.
Why it matters: Management guided to $16.0 million to $16.5 million in Q3 combined revenue. Meeting that range would extend recent sequential growth.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 pro forma combined revenue is at least $16.0 million, above Q2's $15.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 pro forma combined revenue is below $15.5 million. This reverses the guided rise from the prior quarter.
Why it matters: Marchex said its top 100 customers bring in about 90% of revenue. Broader paid use of combined products would show that cross-selling is gaining reach.
Supportive ifThe next update shows more top customers buying combined products through regular use or paid pilots than the prior report.
Worry ifThe next update shows no rise in purchases by top customers, or says existing paid pilots were canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $522 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,579 loss on $10,000 · 35.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.