Marchex Inc (MCHX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.74-1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCHX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCHX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Marchex, Inc. (“Marchex” or the "Company") is issuing an Earnings Release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purp…
Why it matters: Finishing the acquisition is key for Marchex's growth and market reach. It could help future revenue.
Supportive ifThe Archenia acquisition will close by July 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close by July 2026.
Why it matters: Delays could slow the expected benefits and growth from the purchase.
Worry ifIntegration milestones are reached on time. There are no delays.
Less concerning ifReports of delays or problems with integration come up.
Why it matters: Growth over time is important to show the Archenia purchase is working.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue exceeds Q2 2026 revenue of $15.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is less than or equal to Q2 2026 revenue.
Why it matters: Strong adoption of new products can drive revenue growth and validate the company's AI strategy. It shows the market's response to their innovations.
Supportive ifAt least 50% of targeted customers have purchased new AI products by Q3 2026.
Worry ifLess than 50% of targeted customers adopt the new AI products by Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $395 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,366 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the sector starts growing again, it could help Marchex's performance. This would signal a potential recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a positive change after being negative.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. It may drop even more.
Why it matters: This EBITDA range shows better profits from the Archenia deal. It means better cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was between $2.3 million and $2.5 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $2.3 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Another miss would show ongoing money problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows results lower than analysts expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings meet or are better than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue goal would show strong growth after buying Archenia.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance of $16.0 million or above is confirmed in the earnings release.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $16.0 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Marchex's growth after buying Archenia. It shows customers like the new products.
Supportive ifQ3 pro forma revenue reported at $16.0 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 pro forma revenue reported below $16.0 million.
Why it matters: This margin shows management cares about making money and doing well after the buy.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margins were 10% or higher for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margins were below 10% for Q3.