Moody's Corporation (MCO)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$493.55-2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 44.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
MCO — officer change
Dated 2026-08-12
The provided text is only the standard Item 5.02 header and does not contain specific details about any individual's departure, election, or appointment.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI services can boost overall revenue. It helps the company's growth plan.
Supportive ifMoody's Analytics reports AI revenue growth over 10% year over year.
Worry ifAI revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good use of money. It also gives value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reported at $2.5 billion or more for 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks reported under $2.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: If ARR growth is below 8%, it may show less demand for analytics.
Worry ifMoody's Analytics reports ARR growth below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifMoody's Analytics ARR growth remains at or above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Missing this target may show a change in how money is spent.
Worry ifShare repurchase guidance falls below $3 billion.
Less concerning ifShare repurchase guidance remains at or above $3 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,361 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Aligning with the high-single-digit growth target shows Moody's is on track. This impacts investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew in the high-single-digit percent range. This matches what management said.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5%. This may show a slowdown.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and how margins are doing.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth in line with high-single-digit guidance.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5%.
Why it matters: Staying in this margin range shows good cost control. It also shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin is in the 52%-53% range.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin is less than 52%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 8%, it may signal weakening demand or market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A margin below 52% may show higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 52% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating margin stays at or above 52% in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in share buyback plans may show management's trust in cash flow.
Watch forManagement raises share buyback plan to over $3.0 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowers share buyback plan to below $2.5 billion.