Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mercury General (MCY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$84.48-5.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.75 → 11.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share remains at $0.32 | The dividend stays steady at $0.32 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.3175 next year | Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.3175 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.3175 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MCY is an insurer with a currently improving earnings profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has strengthened from mildly favorable to favorable.
The evidence describes MCY as cheap versus peers, though its valuation is about 1.13 times the peer level. Expectations and the valuation model are aligned, with no sign of concentrated fragility in what is priced in.
Near-term results have been strong: from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2, net income rose 58.3% and operating income rose 31.9%, while net premiums earned continued to grow. Management is on track on revenue and profit goals, but estimates have been trending down and a past deep earnings miss remains a risk; the evidence gives a low near-term miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific swing factor is whether MCY maintains guidance, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. The sector backdrop also matters: falling rates could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results and higher guidance from CB, PGR, and TRV could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on continued premium growth and stronger profitability, balanced against guidance, rate, and sector risks. Recent performance supports an intact thesis, but the evidence is medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose to $190 million. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below zero next year |
Net income: $-13.685M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >0 and growing. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026-13,685,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 4% per year | A primary condition in Mercury General's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year | Revenue growth: -12.84% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 2026-12.844448 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.00 → $11.75 · observed estimates
$6.54B → $6.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.75 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.75 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.75 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.75 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.75 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.00 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.13 | $6,543,610,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.25 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $11.75 | $6,677,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.