Mercury General (MCY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.53-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Entry into a Material Agreement. Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On June 24, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Mercury General Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with the lenders named therein, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other parties party thereto (the “Second A&R Credit Agreement”). The Second A&R Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $250.0 million unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Revolvin…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth helps the company make more money overall.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,287 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show problems affecting Mercury General.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A combined ratio below this level shows good underwriting. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifCombined ratio is below 90%.
Worry ifCombined ratio is over 90%.
Why it matters: This rate increase could boost revenue from the homeowners segment, which is significant for the company.
Supportive ifHomeowners insurance revenue increases by more than 5% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifHomeowners insurance revenue growth is less than 2% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows they want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend is declared at $0.3175 per share.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is reduced from $0.3175 per share.
Why it matters: Higher investment losses may cause problems. This can affect profits.
Worry ifNet investment losses were over $5 million.
Less concerning ifNet investment losses were under $1 million.
Why it matters: Higher catastrophe losses may show ongoing problems with risk management. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifIn Q3, losses from disasters after reinsurance were more than $75 million.
Less concerning ifLosses from disasters after reinsurance were less than $75 million.
Why it matters: A decline could show problems with the investment portfolio or market conditions.
Worry ifNet investment income reported below $76 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet investment income reported above $76 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Getting money back from subrogation claims can help finances. It can also lower losses.
Supportive ifThe recovery from Eaton fire subrogation claims is more than $400 million.
Worry ifRecovery from Eaton fire subrogation claims is less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Growth in premiums shows strong demand and a good market position.
Supportive ifTotal premiums written grew by more than 15%.
Worry ifTotal premiums written growth falls below 15%.
Why it matters: Higher losses from disasters show problems in managing risk and making money.
Worry ifQ2 catastrophe losses were over $100 million. This shows a big impact from disasters.
Less concerning ifCatastrophe losses are under $100 million. This means risk management is working well.
Why it matters: Higher net income is key for the company’s finances. It helps with dividend payments.
Supportive ifNet income reported higher than the prior year in Q2.
Worry ifNet income reported lower than the prior year in Q2.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key measure of the company's revenue health. A slowdown could signal issues in the market or pricing strategies.
Worry ifNet premiums earned growth below 9% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet premiums earned growth above 9% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This rate increase is important for revenue growth in a big part of the business.
Supportive ifThe California homeowners rate increase of 6.9% starts in July 2026.
Worry ifThe rate increase is delayed or not implemented as planned.
Why it matters: This may show a drop in profits. Steady income growth is key for investor trust.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 2026 dropping below $200 million.
Less concerning ifNet income in Q3 2026 exceeding $200 million.