Mercury General (MCY)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$84.48-5.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Entry into a Material Agreement. Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On June 24, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Mercury General Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with the lenders named therein, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other parties party thereto (the “Second A&R Credit Agreement”). The Second A&R Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $250.0 million unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Revolvin…
Why it matters: Q2 included about $80 million of added losses on the Palisades and Eaton fires. More added losses could weigh on results.
Worry ifThe next results report adds to Palisades or Eaton fire reserves. Or, it reports more than $80 million in added wildfire losses.
Less concerning ifThe next results report no added reserves for the Palisades or Eaton fires. It also shows no increase in wildfire losses.
Why it matters: Q2 operating income was $195.2 million, up 31.9% from a year earlier. Another increase would support the profit trend.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income tops $195 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is $195 million or less.
Why it matters: Net premiums written grew 5.3% in Q2. Growth above that level would extend recent gains in premiums.
Supportive ifQ3 net premiums written grow more than 5% from a year earlier.
Worry ifQ3 net premiums written grow 5% or less from a year earlier.
Why it matters: The combined ratio was 89.9% in Q2. A rise above 95% would show weaker underwriting results.
Worry ifQ3 2026 combined ratio is above 95%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 combined ratio stays at or below 95%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $245 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,397 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.