Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$400.43+1.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.11 → 6.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MDGL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net loss improves to at least -$94 million | A primary condition in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-94.4 USD million. | Intact | Net loss worsens below -$114 million next year | Net income: $55.442M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-94.4 USD million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202655,442,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business built around Rezdiffra and a developing MASH pipeline. The thesis is intact, with management’s growth priority on track, but the company remains loss-making and confidence is medium.
The valuation model shows MDGL trading at a premium to peers, while expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence and the priced-in tag is justified. That suggests the valuation reflects the growth story, but it leaves limited evidence of a large expectations gap in either direction.
Near term, Rezdiffra sales and patient growth support continued business momentum: sales reached $364.3 million in 2026-Q2, up 71% year over year, and patient count exceeded 49,000. Earnings remain erratic, with a 43% estimated miss probability for the next report, so guidance and execution are important near-term risks.
The multi-year view hinges on whether Rezdiffra can sustain growth and whether pipeline work advances into meaningful therapies; recent pipeline progress is mixed. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakening would be unfavorable, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, MDGL’s thesis rests on translating rapid Rezdiffra adoption into durable growth while managing losses and advancing its pipeline. The thesis remains intact, but valuation and near-term execution risks warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Net Income: Third-quarter 2026 net income was $55.4 million, or $1.90 per basic share and $1.83 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $114.2 million, or $4.01 per basic and diluted share, in the comparable prior year period.” “30, 2026, Madrigal had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities of $961.8 million compared to $988.6 million as of Dec.” Net income was $55.442 million in 2026-Q3.
Rezdiffra sales grow to at least $311 million | Madrigal is growing sales of Rezdiffra, from $287M to $311M. | Improving | Rezdiffra revenue falls below $287 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Updates • Third-quarter 2026 Rezdiffra ® (resmetirom) net sales of $431.3 million, representing year-over-year growth of 50%; achieved first quarter of profitability • Rezdiffra reaches a major milestone, achieving blockbuster status with year-to-date net sales of $1.1 billion • As of Sept.” “Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results • Total Revenues: Third-quarter 2026 net revenues were $431.3 million, an increase of 50% compared to $287.3 million in the comparable prior year period, driven by increased demand for Rezdiffra in the U.S. in 2026.” Revenue was $431.268 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expand strategic partnerships to support growth | A supporting condition in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is expand partnerships steadily. | Intact | No new partnerships formed or partnerships fail to grow | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.38 → $6.82 · observed estimates
$2.17B → $2.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.38 | $2,170,251,420 | 3 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.60 | $2,194,834,537 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.38 | $2,179,615,540 | 3 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.38 | $2,179,615,540 | 3 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.64 | $2,203,574,384 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.38 | $2,182,907,840 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.38 | $2,182,907,840 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.39 | $2,172,138,500 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.07 | $2,170,064,478 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.01 | $2,149,352,570 | 4 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.01 | $2,149,352,570 | 4 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.63 | $2,144,884,070 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.63 | $2,144,884,070 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.70 | $2,150,072,846 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.55 | $2,154,233,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.55 | $2,154,119,093 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.34 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.34 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.34 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.34 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.34 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.11 | $2,128,598,626 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.11 | $2,128,597,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.11 | $2,128,616,433 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.83 | $2,118,515,291 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.83 | $2,118,515,291 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.71 | $2,115,337,035 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.71 | $2,115,337,035 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.71 | $2,115,337,035 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.71 | $2,115,337,035 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.71 | $2,115,337,035 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.68 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.75 | $2,113,548,530 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.75 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.75 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.75 | $2,113,546,851 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.75 | $2,114,030,061 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.82 | $2,173,687,155 | 9 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.