Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$541.08-0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 49.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDGL — director transition
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — John C. Reed, M.D., Ph.D.: The filing discloses the routine election of a new independent director to fill a vacancy created by an expansion of the board size.
Why it matters: A drop could raise worries about money and funding for growth.
Worry ifCash reserves are below $800 million.
Less concerning ifCash reserves remain at or above $800 million.
Why it matters: New partnerships could help Madrigal's pipeline and reach for MASH therapies.
Supportive ifNew partnerships announced to grow the pipeline.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher costs may mean too much money is spent on marketing and sales. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed $300 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain below $300 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New patents can help Rezdiffra stay strong in the market and keep exclusivity.
Supportive ifNew patents could keep resmetirom safe until after 2045.
Worry ifNo new patents were approved, and existing patents were not challenged.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,936 loss on $10,000 · 29.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slowing sales growth may mean demand is peaking or competition is rising. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifIn Q3, Rezdiffra's net sales growth was below 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, Rezdiffra's net sales growth stayed above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Good results could help Madrigal's plan for combination therapies in MASH.
Supportive ifPositive preliminary results from the Phase 1 trial of MGL-2086 reported by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNegative results or delays in reporting from the Phase 1 trial of MGL-2086.
Why it matters: New patents would strengthen Madrigal's market position and protect its revenue stream.
Supportive ifMadrigal announced more patents for Rezdiffra. They now have three plus the new ones.
Worry ifNo new patents granted or challenges to existing patents arise.
Why it matters: This progress could improve Madrigal's pipeline and its place in the MASH market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of good trial results or new steps for the siRNA asset.
Worry ifDelay or bad results for the siRNA asset that targets PNPLA3.
Why it matters: New patents would strengthen market position and protect revenue streams for Rezdiffra.
Supportive ifNew patents could protect Rezdiffra until after 2045.
Worry ifNo new patents have been granted. Existing patents have not been successfully challenged.
Why it matters: More patients would show strong market demand and good marketing efforts.
Supportive ifActive patients on Rezdiffra now exceed 60,000.
Worry ifActive patients on Rezdiffra are not increasing or are going down.
Why it matters: Good results could improve Madrigal's pipeline and help it in MASH.
Supportive ifThe ARO-PNPLA3 trial showed good results with a big drop in liver fat.
Worry ifTrial results show no significant reduction in liver fat.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it could benefit Madrigal. A strong sector can lift individual stocks.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth stays below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net income means the company is getting more stable. It also shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 net income improves to less than -$90M.
Worry ifQ2 net income worsens to more than -$100M.
Why it matters: New partnerships can boost growth and market reach for Rezdiffra.
Supportive ifA new partnership was announced with a big healthcare company.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better financial stability helps the company grow. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$80M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income worsens to more than -$100M in Q2 2026.