Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$400.43+1.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 45.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDGL — director transition
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — John C. Reed, M.D., Ph.D.: The filing discloses the routine election of a new independent director to fill a vacancy created by an expansion of the board size.
Why it matters: The company lost $57.9 million in Q2 as operating costs exceeded sales. Lower spending against rising sales could ease that gap.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss is smaller than $57.9 million, while net sales rise above $364.3 million.
Worry ifQ3 net loss is $57.9 million or more, while operating costs remain above net sales.
Why it matters: Q2 sales grew 71% year over year to $364.3 million. Slower growth could signal weaker demand or uptake.
Watch forQ3 Rezdiffra net sales exceed $364.3 million and grow at least 50% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 sales grow less than 50% year over year or fall below $364.3 million.
Why it matters: More patients can support future sales growth. A stall would test whether strong early uptake continues.
Watch forThe next update reports more than 50,000 active patients and a higher count than the prior quarter.
Also watch forThe next update reports 50,000 or fewer active patients, or a lower count than the prior quarter.
Why it matters: The results will show if this oral GLP-1 drug can move toward a study with Rezdiffra.
Watch forThe Phase 1 update reports acceptable safety and a clear dose response, with no major delay.
Also watch forThe study reports a serious safety issue, no useful dose response, or a pause in dosing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $417 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,426 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This is the next set date to check sales, patient growth, costs, and pipeline progress.
Watch forMadrigal reports Q3 results on November 3, with new sales and patient counts.
Also watch forMadrigal delays its November 3 report or gives no new sales and patient counts.