Mondelez International (MDLZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$60.22+1.77%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.22. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $47 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $64–$71. Note: our $47 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($64–$71). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $67 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$64.00 – $71.00 (median $68.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 4% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.33/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $68.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $22.48 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $12.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $13.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $35.87 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $65.14 | 13.0 | 5.00 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $24.33 | 10.1 | 3.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $25.11 | 12.5 | 2.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $37.13 | 13.0 | 2.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $27.35 | 0.9 | 30.56 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $80.44 | 28.2 | 2.85 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $23.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $60.91 | 21.4 | 2.85 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $38.18 | 13.0 | 2.93 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $91.88 | 13.0 | 7.05 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $22.01 | 12.5 | 1.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $66.17 | 13.0 | 5.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $29.05 | 0.9 | 32.47 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $143.36 | 28.2 | 5.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $108.56 | 21.4 | 5.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $115.56 | 13.0 | 8.87 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $20.16 | 12.5 | 1.61 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $67.50 | 13.0 | 5.18 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $29.64 | 0.9 | 33.12 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $146.24 | 28.2 | 5.18 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $110.74 | 21.4 | 5.18 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.