Mondelez International (MDLZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.28-0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDLZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
MDLZ — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-02-18
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement In connection with entry into the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement described below under “
Why it matters: This divestiture is a strategic move that may impact future growth and focus.
Supportive ifThe divestiture of the gum business is completed by Q4 2023.
Worry ifThe divestiture is delayed beyond Q4 2023.
Why it matters: Strength in emerging markets is key for growth. Positive comments could boost confidence.
Supportive ifManagement highlights strong growth in emerging markets during the Q3 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement is worried about growth in emerging markets. They shared this during the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: A smooth change to the new CFO could improve financial plans and actions.
Supportive ifThe new CFO gave positive comments on financial plans and actions in the Q3 call.
Worry ifThere was negative feedback about financial plans and actions in the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow is crucial for capital return and growth. Falling short could affect shareholder returns.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $3 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow reported at or above $3 billion for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,861 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management wants Adjusted EPS to grow by 0% to 5%. A drop shows profit issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below 0% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth reported at or above 0% for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting management's guidance for the year. A drop below 2% could signal deeper issues in the business.
Worry ifQ3 Organic Net Revenue growth reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Organic Net Revenue growth reported at or above 2%.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change the company’s plans. A good response can help investors.
Supportive ifThe market liked what CFO Amit Banati said about the strategy.
Worry ifThe market did not like what CFO Amit Banati said about the strategy.
Why it matters: What management says about revenue growth is important. It shows market trends and plans.
Worry ifManagement says Organic Net Revenue will grow by 0% to 2% for 2026 in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts Organic Net Revenue growth guidance to less than 0% for 2026.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and performance. This could affect investor sentiment and stock price.
Watch forFinancial numbers or guidance improve after the CFO is appointed.
Also watch forFinancial numbers keep going down. Guidance is negative after the CFO is named.
Why it matters: Stable costs can help margins and profits. This is important for Mondelez's finances.
Supportive ifCommodity prices are showing signs of stability or going down.
Worry ifCommodity prices are still rising a lot.
Why it matters: This shows how well the company makes money. Missing this target may show problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below flat to 5%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth reported at flat or above 5%.