Mondelez International (MDLZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$66.82-0.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDLZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDLZ — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-02-18
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement In connection with entry into the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement described below under “
Why it matters: Europe organic revenue fell 2.1% in Q3, after a 3.5% drop in Q2. A return to growth would mark a clear change.
Supportive ifEurope organic revenue grows year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifEurope organic revenue falls year over year again in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Year-to-date free cash flow was $1.7 billion. The full-year goal is about $3 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $3 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is about $3 billion or higher.
Why it matters: The company kept its 2026 goal at 2% or more. Growth below that mark would miss its stated goal.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is below 2%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is 2% or higher.
Why it matters: The company kept this full-year range. Year-to-date adjusted EPS was down 0.9% in constant currency.
Watch forFull-year adjusted EPS growth is within the stated range and above flat.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted EPS growth is below 0% or above 5% in constant currency.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The deal adds a snack line in a growth area. Wider sales would show that the new product is reaching more homes.
Supportive ifMondelez confirms the deal closed. It reports wider distribution or reaches more homes for Undercover Snacks.
Worry ifMondelez reports the deal did not close. Or, after closing, it reports no wider distribution or reach to more homes.