Mondelez International (MDLZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.28-0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2% for 2026: FY26 organic revenue guidance +2.0% vs target 0%-2% (at lower bound).
Mondelez grows revenue about 2% a year as guided. Free cash flow targets about $3 billion in 2026. Profit margins and earnings per share aim to stay flat to up 5%. Leadership changes strengthen the company.
Rising cocoa prices may hurt revenue growth. EPS growth is behind targets with recent guidance cuts. Cash flow shows volatility and may miss the $3 billion goal.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $47. Analysts expect roughly 3% revenue growth, which is slightly above management's 0-2% guidance. Our fair value is well below the Street median, reflecting caution on growth and margins.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS growth falls below 0% in FY26
Maintain Adjusted EPS growth guidance in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis for 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis is intact, reflecting recent earnings beats and a positive management transition, but it is under pressure from sector challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a durable premium compared to peers, with expectations slightly elevated. The current valuation reflects a gap of 0.18, indicating that investors may expect continued performance despite sector headwinds.
Management has set targets for organic revenue growth of flat to 2%, which aligns with recent results. However, adjusted EPS growth is lagging behind expectations, suggesting potential challenges in meeting future goals.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, inflation trends and their impact on consumer staples will be crucial for future momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Organic Net Revenue growth is expected to remain flat to 2%. This reinforces confidence in the company's revenue potential.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently maintained Adjusted EPS growth guidance of flat to 5 percent for 2026. However, adjusted EPS declined 2.7% on a constant currency basis in 2026-Q2 and 14.9% in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress against the target so far.
“The company maintains its Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
“The company reaffirms Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
“Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
“Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
Breaks if: Cocoa price inflation causes revenue growth to fall below 0% in FY26
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $2.5 billion in FY26
Target Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management has consistently targeted Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026 and $3+ billion for 2025. Year-to-date cash from operating activities was $1.3 billion in 2026-Q2, supporting the target. The trajectory shows consistent reaffirmation with steady cash flow generation.
“The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”
“The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”
“The company continues to expect 2025 Free Cash Flow of $3+ billion.”
“The company also expects 2025 Free Cash Flow of $3+ billion.”
“The company also expects 2025 Free Cash Flow of $3+ billion.”
Breaks if: Organic Net Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26
Maintain Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent for 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed Organic Net Revenue growth guidance of flat to 2 percent for 2026. This aligns with reported year-to-date 2026 Organic Net Revenue growth of 2.2% in Q2. The trajectory is delivering against the stated growth range.
“For 2026, the company now expects at least 2 percent Organic Net Revenue growth.”
“For 2026, the company reaffirms Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”
“For 2026, the company expects Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”
“The company reaffirms Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent for 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MDLZ's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and meet management targets. Not investment advice.