Medtronic (MDT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$94.17+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDT — President transition
Dated 2026-05-18
Executive Vice President and President, Neuroscience Portfolio — Brett Wall: Brett Wall is departing from his position and will be replaced by Dr. Kweli Thompson.
Why it matters: The result will affect Medtronic's reputation. It will also impact how the company runs.
Worry ifA public statement says there are no new data breaches. Operations are not affected.
Less concerning ifNew findings show serious data breaches. These affect operations and patient safety.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can indicate financial health. A cut may signal trouble, while an increase shows confidence.
Watch forDividends keep increasing. This keeps the 49-year streak going.
Also watch forDividend cut or freeze, breaking the streak.
Why it matters: New product approvals can drive revenue growth. Delays or denials would slow growth momentum.
Supportive ifFDA approval for Hugo™ RAS and LigaSure™ RAS vessel sealer.
Worry ifFDA delays or denies approval for these products.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Medtronic is doing. They will also show growth trends.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth over 6.75% compared to last year.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth under 6.75% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Achieving growth is crucial for Medtronic's long-term success. Results will indicate business health.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth reported above 5% for FY26.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 0% for FY26.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows the company is stable. It shows confidence in earnings.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS guidance remains unchanged or is raised for FY26.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS guidance is lowered for FY26.
Why it matters: If EPS is lower than expected, it may show less profit. This can worry investors about how costs are managed.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP EPS reported below $5.90.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 non-GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $5.90.
Why it matters: An increase would reflect strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase for Q2 FY27.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced for Q2 FY27.
Why it matters: Approval would show that Medtronic's investment in robotic surgery is working. It could help them make more money in the future.
Supportive ifFDA grants approval for Hugo™ RAS for general surgery.
Worry ifThe FDA has denied or delayed approval for Hugo™ RAS for general surgery.
Why it matters: Fixing the IT security breach is important. It helps restore trust and protect data.
Worry ifA public announcement will explain how they fixed the IT security breach.
Less concerning ifNew information about the breach shows there are still problems.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and results. Stability is important.
Watch forDr. Kweli Thompson announced positive changes after starting his role.
Also watch forThere may be a negative effect on company results after the change.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if Medtronic can maintain its growth momentum. A strong outlook supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifGuidance for Q2 FY27 organic revenue growth above 7.25%.
Worry ifGuidance for Q2 FY27 organic revenue growth below 6.75%.
Why it matters: Strong growth shows that products are being adopted and market share is increasing.
Supportive ifCardiac Ablation Solutions revenue grew more than 78% from last year.
Worry ifCardiac Ablation Solutions revenue grew less than 50% from last year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,891 loss on $10,000 · 28.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.