Medtronic (MDT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$83.84+0.94%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.84. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 MDT trades at 15× p/e, below its 37× p/e peer median. Our $89 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $80–$120. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $95.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $87.98 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $84.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $51.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$80.00 – $120.00 (median $95.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $69.51 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $205.97 | 36.5 | 5.64 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $23.73 | 6.2 | 7.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $100.81 | 24.0 | 4.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $202.04 | 36.5 | 5.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $78.33 | 2.8 | 28.20 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $106.32 | 19.2 | 5.53 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $48.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $83.87 | 15.2 | 5.53 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $213.79 | 36.5 | 5.85 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $262.64 | 36.5 | 7.19 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $119.43 | 24.0 | 4.99 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $247.89 | 36.5 | 6.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $91.44 | 2.8 | 32.92 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $130.44 | 19.2 | 6.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $102.91 | 15.2 | 6.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $308.83 | 36.5 | 8.46 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $133.72 | 24.0 | 5.58 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $272.00 | 36.5 | 7.45 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $100.34 | 2.8 | 36.13 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $143.13 | 19.2 | 7.45 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $112.92 | 15.2 | 7.45 | Analyst | high |