Medtronic (MDT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$94.17+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Medtronic grows sales about 7% a year. Key franchises like Cardiac Ablation grew 78% last quarter. Profit per share should rise to about $6 next year. The company raised its dividend for 49 years in a row.
Cyberattacks and tariffs could raise costs and hurt profits. Sales growth may slow below 5%. Profit per share might fall under $5.60 next year.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $88. Analysts expect 5.5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 7% below the Street median of $95.
Breaks if: Dividend per share does not increase in FY26
Breaks if: Cardiac Ablation growth falls below 6% in Q4 FY26
EPS falls below $5.60 in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder, focusing on steady growth in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to growth.
The market appears to price MDT as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, there is a sense of fragility due to weak execution quality in the industry.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued organic revenue growth, as management has consistently prioritized this. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is moderate risk due to the high miss-rate nature of the industry.
The key forward scenarios include potential negative impacts if guidance is cut or if economic conditions worsen, particularly in the jobs market. Conversely, positive momentum from sector peers could bolster MDT's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Medtronic reported Q1 fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.45. This exceeded consensus estimates by 4.32%. Revenue of $9.76 billion also beat expectations by 3.02%. The company raised its fiscal 2027 guidance due to strong demand for heart devices. Analysts see the MedTech sector stabilizing after a period of underperformance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: organic revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27
Overall, MDT's trajectory looks promising over the next 1 to 3 years, contingent on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.