Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-24 · fmp
Medtronic (MDT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.84-0.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.40 → 6.39 EPS · FY ending Apr 24, 2028 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MDT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend increases annually, continuing 49 years of growth | The company raised its dividend for 49 years in a row. | Intact | Dividend per share does not increase in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.72 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share increases to $0.72 in Q4 FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 3, 20260.72 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-24 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MDT is a large medical-device business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact, but its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable, and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MDT is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 0.56 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the priced-in assessment says current pricing is justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong, with two recent earnings beats, and FY26 organic revenue growth improved to 5.8% from 4.9% in FY25. Management guides to 6.75%-7.25% organic growth and $5.90-$6.00 non-GAAP diluted EPS for FY27; key franchises and new products are supporting growth. Near-term risk is quiet, but the CEO transition, peers’ recent misses, and a possible guidance cut merit attention.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue acceleration, delivering the FY27 guidance, and continuing to grow key franchises and new products. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could weigh on the outlook, while strong results and higher guidance from sector peers such as ABT, SYK, and BSX would support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, recent execution supports the thesis, but the shift to mildly favorable and the CEO transition make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Increase The company today announced that effective May 20, 2025, the Medtronic board of directors approved an increase in Medtronic’s cash dividend for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, raising the quarterly amount to $0.71 per ordinary share.” “Today's announcement marks the 48th consecutive year of an increase in the dividend payment.”
Strong growth in key franchises like Cardiac Ablation and Diabetes | Key franchises like Cardiac Ablation grew 78% last quarter. | Under Pressure | Cardiac Ablation growth falls below 6% in Q4 FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We continue to make targeted investments in innovation, portfolio development, and commercial execution that will support sustainable long-term value creation,” said Thierry Piéton, Medtronic chief financial officer.” “With a uniquely robust pipeline, our tuck-in M&A and investment strategy activated, and continued financial discipline, we are poised to build on our FY26 performance.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Non-GAAP EPS grows to about $6.00 in FY27 | Medtronic grows sales about 7% a year. | Intact | EPS falls below $5.60 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company also raised its FY27 diluted non-GAAP EPS guidance to the new range of $5.94 to $6.00 versus the prior $5.90 to $6.00.” “The company is guiding to FY27 diluted non-GAAP EPS in the range of $5.90 to $6.00, representing FY27 diluted non-GAAP EPS growth in the range of 6.7% to 8.5%.” Operating income was $1.464 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Organic revenue growth accelerates to about 7% in FY27 | A primary condition in Medtronic's published investment case. The stated target is 6.75%-7.25% YoY growth. | Intact | organic revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company raised its FY27 organic revenue growth guidance to 7.25% to 7.75%, an increase from the prior guidance of 6.75% to 7.25%.” “The company also raised its FY27 diluted non-GAAP EPS guidance to the new range of $5.94 to $6.00 versus the prior $5.90 to $6.00.” Revenue was $9.017 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.39 → $6.39 · observed estimates
$40.22B → $40.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.39 | $40,217,048,068 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.39 | $40,217,048,068 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.39 | $40,217,046,268 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.39 | $40,217,046,268 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.39 | $40,217,046,268 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.39 | $40,217,046,268 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.40 | $40,242,259,346 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.40 | $40,242,270,885 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.39 | $40,234,424,731 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.39 | $40,234,424,731 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.39 | $40,234,424,731 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.39 | $40,234,424,731 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.39 | $40,234,424,731 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.39 | $40,234,425,273 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.40 | $40,291,219,166 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.40 | $40,388,170,831 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.40 | $40,385,747,754 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.40 | $40,385,709,292 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.40 | $40,385,709,292 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.40 | $40,391,786,215 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.39 | $40,339,305,388 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.39 | $40,339,305,388 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.39 | $40,269,275,559 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.39 | $40,266,214,689 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.39 | $40,266,227,733 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.40 | $40,274,923,385 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.40 | $40,274,923,385 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.40 | $40,274,923,385 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.40 | $40,273,966,863 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.40 | $40,273,966,863 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.40 | $40,273,966,863 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.40 | $40,274,705,993 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.40 | $40,274,705,993 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.40 | $40,274,705,993 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.40 | $40,274,705,993 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.40 | $40,259,879,906 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.40 | $40,259,879,628 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.40 | $40,259,879,628 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.40 | $40,259,879,628 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.40 | $40,259,879,628 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.39 | $40,280,448,544 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.39 | $40,280,465,374 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.39 | $40,280,469,540 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.39 | $40,280,469,540 | 17 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.