Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.05-0.88%
Close 2026-08-11 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDV — legal / regulatory event — In connection with the consummation of the Mergers, the Company
Dated 2026-08-12
In connection with the consummation of the Mergers, the Company notified the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) on the Closing Date that (i) each outstanding share of Modiv Common Stock, other than any Excluded Shares, converted into the right to receive the Common Stock Merger Consideration and (ii) each outstanding share of the Modiv Preferred Stock, other than any Excluded Shares, converted into the right to receive the Preferred Stock Merger Consideration pursuant to the Merger Agreemen…
Why it matters: GNL said it planned to repay Modiv’s debt and preferred stock at closing. A report on the payoff can confirm that step is complete.
Supportive ifA GNL filing confirms it repaid all Modiv debt and preferred stock using balance-sheet funds. This happened on or after the August 12, 2026 closing.
Worry ifA GNL filing shows any Modiv debt or preferred stock remained unpaid after the closing.
Why it matters: Modiv said former holders would receive 25% more annual dividend income after the merger. GNL’s payment record can test that claim.
Supportive ifGNL declares quarterly dividends. Former Modiv holders get at least 25% more cash income per year than at Modiv’s $1.20 rate.
Worry ifGNL’s declared payments give former Modiv holders less than 25% more annual cash income than Modiv’s $1.20 rate.
Why it matters: GNL said it expects $6 million in yearly cost savings and 4% higher AFFO per share. Its report can show whether those gains appear.
Supportive ifGNL reports yearly savings from the merger near $6 million. AFFO per share is at least 4% higher than before the deal.
Worry ifGNL reports savings well below a $6 million yearly pace or AFFO per share below its pre-deal level.
Why it matters: The deal cited 2.4% yearly rent increases across Modiv’s leases. Later reports can show if that income stream holds up.
Worry ifGNL reports annual rent increases near 2.4% for the acquired Modiv properties. Missed rent has not risen much.
Less concerning ifGNL reports rent increases far below 2.4% or a major rise in missed rent from the acquired properties.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $218 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,008 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.