Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. (MEC)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.05-18.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 1.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MEC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Incremental cross-selling revenue of $50 million to $60 million in 2026 | The company is working on cross-selling to add $50 million to $60 million in revenue. | Intact | Incremental cross-selling revenue falls below $50 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MEC is a high-risk industrial growth story, not a proven durable compounder, and it remains loss-making. Its thesis state is watch: management priorities are on track, but recent financial performance trails the industry cohort.
MEC is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may still be demanding relative to the evidence; priced-in fragility is low, so no major fragility signal is flagged.
Near term, guidance execution is a key risk: a cut could lead analysts to lower estimates, while the stated miss probability is 36% and the watch tier is quiet. For the multi-year view, datacenter and critical power revenue is growing, and management has raised revenue and cross-selling goals, but the company remains loss-making and recent performance is weak.
The thesis depends on MEC converting its datacenter and critical power awards and qualified pipeline into sustained revenue while delivering its raised guidance and cross-selling goals. Near term, a guidance cut or weaker results from industrial peers could weaken the setup; continued peer strength could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MEC has clear growth initiatives and reported execution progress, but losses, high risk, and weaker performance than its peers leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected between $25 million and $35 million. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $25 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-6.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$25 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-6,648,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year revenue near $605 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$605 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $590 million in FY26 | Revenue: $170.358M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$605 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026170,358,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Support Datacenter & Critical Power ramp with working capital investment | A supporting condition in Mayville Engineering Co., Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain incremental working capital investment to support ramp. | Improving | Working capital investment fails to support Datacenter & Critical Power ramp | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.12 → $1.02 · observed estimates
$0.69B → $0.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.97 | $685,692,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.12 | $693,170,673 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.12 | $693,170,673 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.12 | $693,170,673 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.12 | $693,170,590 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.10 | $720,006,450 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.10 | $720,006,450 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.02 | $725,646,450 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.10 | $712,984,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.02 | $725,644,788 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.02 | $725,644,788 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.02 | $725,642,988 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $725,642,907 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.02 | $725,644,707 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.