Mayville Engineering Co., Inc. (MEC)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.66+1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MEC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On August 4, 2026, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Finishing this project can strengthen MEC's balance sheet and help growth.
Supportive ifThe public offering raised more than $50 million.
Worry ifPublic offering fails to close or raises less than $30 million.
Why it matters: Achieving $50M-$60M in cross-selling revenue is important for growth. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifThe company reports over $50M in cross-selling revenue.
Worry ifCross-selling revenue was under $30M. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit Mayville's performance. This could improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth moves back toward its highs, above 5%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 5%.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong demand in key markets. This is true for Datacenter and Critical Power.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net sales reported above $160 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net sales reported below $160 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,885 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will show if Mayville can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows more losses or worse financial results.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows strong demand. It also shows management's confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance by more than 5% from the previous estimate.
Worry ifManagement keeps Q3 revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: A lower ratio shows better financial health and less debt. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio is below 2.9x.
Worry ifNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio is above 2.9x.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow means improved efficiency. This is important for reducing debt.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q3 2026, exceeding $0 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt improves financial stability. It also helps MEC invest in future growth.
Supportive ifNet debt decreases by at least $20 million following the stock offering.
Worry ifNet debt remains unchanged or increases after the stock offering.
Why it matters: A higher Adjusted EBITDA margin shows better cost control and profit. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin rises to over 8.5% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 8.0% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Winning more project awards shows strong market demand. It also shows growth potential for MEC.
Supportive ifMEC announces new awards for Datacenter and Critical Power projects. The total is over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new project awards are announced in the next quarter.