Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MetLife (MET)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$99.75-3.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.14 → 11.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MET yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth | MetLife grows earnings per share by double digits. | Intact | Adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Comment from Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer: We delivered the highest quarterly adjusted earnings per share in MetLife’s history in the third quarter, demonstrating the strength of our New Frontier strategy and discipline of our execution.” “• Adjusted return on equity of 17% for the second s traight quarter , at the top of our range.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MET is a financial company with a durable-earnings profile, but its results also depend on investment income and the rate environment. The multi-year view is on watch: earnings priorities are progressing, yet recent performance trails its industry group and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.8-point premium and a durable-premium label. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations are ahead of the evidence in the model, though confidence in that reading is low. Fragility is low, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified.
Near-term results have been neutral overall, despite a recent earnings beat. Adjusted earnings per share grew 24% from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q2, and variable investment income also rose, though it varies by quarter. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, while recent performance remains below the industry group.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustained double-digit adjusted earnings growth and continued progress in investment income. Near term, a guidance cut or lower interest rates could weigh on the business; continued earnings strength among sector peers could support sector momentum. Capital allocation is mixed, so continued discipline also matters.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MET has evidence of earnings progress, but the expensive valuation, volatile management rating, and below-cohort recent performance leave important execution questions. The long-term thesis depends on continued earnings delivery and investment income without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Grow premiums, fees and other revenues across all segments | Premiums and fees grew 5% to $14.3 billion. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 2% YoY in FY26-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PE | A supporting condition in MetLife's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 12. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 16 | P/E (TTM): 10.17x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202610.167 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve variable investment income targets | Variable investment income rose 58% to $518 million. | Intact | Variable investment income falls below $400 million in FY26-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.99 → $11.16 · observed estimates
$83.48B → $83.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.99 | $83,477,258,900 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.99 | $83,281,766,270 | 17 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.97 | $84,136,797,884 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.90 | $83,575,014,460 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.90 | $83,575,014,460 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.99 | $84,136,797,877 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.10 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.11 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.12 | $84,257,635,051 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.12 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.13 | $84,216,443,751 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.13 | $84,216,443,751 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.13 | $84,216,443,751 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.13 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.13 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.13 | $84,215,777,084 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.14 | $84,215,777,084 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.14 | $84,215,777,084 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.14 | $84,215,777,518 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.14 | $84,169,184,744 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.14 | $84,169,184,744 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.14 | $84,169,184,744 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.15 | $84,169,184,744 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.15 | $84,090,026,129 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.15 | $83,365,192,796 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.15 | $83,365,192,796 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.15 | $83,365,192,796 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.15 | $83,365,192,796 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.15 | $83,365,192,796 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.15 | $83,327,092,363 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.16 | $83,318,575,596 | 11 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.