MetLife (MET)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.62-1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MET
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MET — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-17
Other Events. On August 17, 2026, MetLife, Inc. issued a news release announcing the declaration of (i) a quarterly dividend of $0.31471411 per share on MetLife, Inc.’s floating rate non-cumulative preferred stock, Series A, $25 liquidation preference per share; (ii) a semi-annual dividend of $29.375 per share on MetLife, Inc.’s 5.875% fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative preferred stock, Series D, $1,000 liquidation preference per share; (iii) a quarterly dividend of $351.5625 per share on…
Why it matters: Strong growth in premiums shows MetLife is competitive. It can attract more customers.
Supportive ifGroup Benefits premiums grow above 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifGroup Benefits premiums grow below 2% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Steady dividend payments show good money management and financial strength. This affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifDeclaration of a quarterly dividend equal to or greater than $0.4186 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend announcement or a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Higher investment income means private equity is doing well. This can boost overall earnings.
Supportive ifInvestment income is over $600 million in a quarter.
Worry ifInvestment income drops below $400 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: A higher expense ratio may show inefficiencies. A low ratio helps make more money.
Worry ifThe expense ratio for Q2 2026 is below 20%.
Less concerning ifThe expense ratio for Q2 2026 rises above 21%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,744 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS growth target shows MetLife's ability to grow profits. This is key to investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS growth meets or exceeds 10%.
Worry ifQ2 EPS growth falls below 5%.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures. This is key for future earnings.
Worry ifPremiums, fees, and other revenues grow by less than 5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifPremiums, fees, and other revenues grow by more than 8% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Dividends show how MetLife uses its money. Changes may show management's trust in finances.
Watch forDividends go up or stay the same from past announcements.
Also watch forDividends decrease or are suspended.
Why it matters: Large buybacks show confidence in financial strength. They can help support share prices.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a share buyback plan over $3 billion.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements or a reduction in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: Using the $3 billion buyback well can boost shareholder value and show confidence.
Supportive ifMetLife announces completion of at least $1 billion in share buybacks by year-end 2026.
Worry ifMetLife fails to execute any share buybacks by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in PFOs across segments shows strong demand for MetLife's products.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 PFOs grow more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 PFOs grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A strong free cash flow ratio is key for MetLife's growth and money plans.
Worry ifFree cash flow ratio improves to above 50% in upcoming quarters.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow ratio drops below 30% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Management aims for double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Strong growth supports their strategy.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 exceeds $2.43, showing continued growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 is below $2.43, indicating slower growth.
Why it matters: Meeting income goals is key for MetLife's growth.
Supportive ifVariable investment income for Q3 2026 is over $518 million. This shows strong returns.
Worry ifVariable investment income for Q3 2026 is under $518 million. This shows weaker results.
Why it matters: Growing premiums, fees, and other revenues show MetLife's market strength.
Supportive ifPremiums, fees, and other revenues exceed $13.7 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPremiums, fees, and other revenues fall below $13.7 billion in Q3 2026.