NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track META free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Meta grows revenue about 33% year over year. Capital spending rises to support future growth. AI investments and new products boost user engagement. Profit margins stay stable near 14.5%.
Rising legal and regulatory risks may hurt growth. Competition from Google and others could pressure revenue. High capital costs and AI compute expenses may reduce profits.
The price is about 54% above our fair value near $402. Analysts expect 26% revenue growth, but we see risks that could slow growth and margin expansion.
Breaks if: annual capex falls below $125B in 2026
Meta plans to increase capital expenditures to support future capacity and higher component pricing.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures increased to $19.84 billion in 2026-Q1, reflecting the company's commitment to higher spending to support future capacity. The trajectory shows consistent emphasis on increasing capex, aligning with management's stated priority.
“We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $125-145 billion.”
“We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $115-135 billion.”
“We currently expect 2025 capital expenditures to be in the range of $70-72 billion.”
“We currently expect 2025 capital expenditures to be in the range of $66-72 billion.”
Breaks if: tax rate rises above 16% or falls below 13% in 2026
Meta is focused on managing its tax rate amidst changing regulations and tax landscapes.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Meta's tax rate guidance for 2026 is 13-16%, consistent with prior periods. This reflects a stable approach to managing tax obligations, with the trajectory maintaining within the expected range.
“We expect our tax rate for the remaining quarters of 2026 to be between 13-16%.”
“We expect our full year 2026 tax rate to be 13-16%.”
“We expect our full year 2025 tax rate to be in the range of 12-15%.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $58B in 2026-Q2
Meta aims to achieve significant revenue growth, driven by increased ad impressions and higher ad prices.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $42.31 billion in 2025-Q1 to $56.31 billion in 2026-Q1, a 33% increase, driven by higher ad impressions and prices. The trajectory indicates strong delivery on the revenue growth priority.
“Revenue was $56.31 billion, an increase of 33% year-over-year.”
“Revenue was $59.89 billion, an increase of 24% year-over-year.”
“Revenue was $51.24 billion, an increase of 26% year-over-year.”
“Revenue was $47.52 billion, an increase of 22% year-over-year.”
