Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.20+6.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain CAPEX between $85M and $90M for 2026: CAPEX $92M-$97M vs $85M-$90M target.
Ramaco Resources aims to keep capital spending near $87.5 million in 2026. The company plans to manage cash costs between $95 and $100 per ton. It recently advanced its rare earth strategy with a supply agreement. These moves could help improve its financial health.
Ramaco is currently loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2026. The stock has fallen over 30% from its high amid earnings misses and litigation. Cost control and revenue growth remain uncertain.
The market is selling off Ramaco amid weak earnings and elevated risk. There is no clear consensus revenue growth or fair value priced in. Our view is cautious given the company's losses and volatile outlook.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $90M or falls below $85M in FY26
Breaks if: cash cost per ton falls outside $95-$100 range in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving operational execution. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and the company has a high probability of missing earnings expectations in the near term.
The market currently prices METC as justified, indicating that expectations are aligned with its recent performance. There is a low fragility tier, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management has shown mixed results in advancing key projects, with some progress in growing low-vol metallurgical coal production. However, the elevated risk of an earnings miss could impact overall performance in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly the Brook Mine project and low-vol coal production goals. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and sector performance from peers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report showed a miss, which is concerning. Additionally, there is a sharp drop in the stock price, suggesting a potential repricing of the thesis. While there are advancements in the rare earth and critical minerals project at Brook Mine, these positives are overshadowed by the recent performance issues.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: no progress in rare earth strategy or revenue declines
Over the next one to three years, METC's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.