Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.98+3.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for METC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX between $85M and $90M for 2026 | A primary condition in Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $85M and $90M. | Broken | CAPEX exceeds $90M or falls below $85M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $27.135M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $85M and $90M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202627,135,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with a longer-term growth option in critical minerals. The long-term thesis is mixed and on watch: management is advancing projects and cost control, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is volatile.
METC is described as cheap versus peers, while the model’s confidence is low and its expectations gap is negative. The valuation signal is marked as justified, with no identified concentration of fragility, but this does not remove the risk from weak results or possible guidance cuts.
Near term, earnings risk remains elevated after a run of misses, even as cash costs stayed below $100 per ton in the first half of 2026 and remained within full-year guidance. Over the multi-year view, planned low-vol coal expansions and Brook Mine work show progress, but the Brook pilot is not expected to operate until 2027 and project delivery still matters.
A guidance cut on the next call could deepen concern about the recent results. The coal outlook also depends partly on whether sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and raise guidance or instead weaken. Longer term, the thesis hinges on delivering the planned production growth and advancing Brook Mine, including pilot operations and financing and offtake discussions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, METC has credible project and cost-control progress, but weak recent performance and elevated execution risk keep the long-term thesis on watch. The evidence is mixed, and the critical-minerals opportunity remains dependent on future delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage cash cost of sales between $95 and $100 per ton |
| The company plans to manage cash costs between $95 and $100 per ton. |
| Improving |
| cash cost per ton falls outside $95-$100 range in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our third quarter cash costs rose to $104 per ton from $99 per ton in the second quarter, driven largely by diesel prices that have more than doubled since the start of the year.” “This is caused by external inflationary pressures, including current diesel prices of $5.85 per gallon, compared with $2.50 per gallon at the start of the year, and U.S. rebar prices of $952 per ton, compared with $910 per ton at the start of the year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Advance rare earth strategy and grow revenue | It recently advanced its rare earth strategy with a supply agreement. | Improving | no progress in rare earth strategy or revenue declines | Qualitative progress: $25M 2027 pilot spend + 3 MoUs vs. no progress target Nov 2026 news confirms $25M 2027 Brook Mine pilot spend and multiple MoUs, indicating tangible rare earth strategy advancement. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $-0.10 · observed estimates
$0.71B → $0.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.05 | $708,378,038 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.05 | $708,378,038 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $708,378,038 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.05 | $708,378,038 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.06 | $711,935,920 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.30 | $701,593,040 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.30 | $701,593,040 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $701,593,040 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.30 | $701,593,040 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $704,104,371 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.03 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.05 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.05 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.05 | $697,807,463 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.05 | $692,918,575 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $694,772,078 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $694,772,078 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $694,772,078 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.03 | $693,549,856 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.03 | $693,600,967 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.10 | $684,388,300 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.