Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.20+6.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · METC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
METC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Ramaco Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K under Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shal…
Why it matters: Advancing this project is key for future growth. It could lead to new revenue streams.
Supportive ifThe lab tests will finish. Testing will start in September 2026.
Worry ifDelays in starting the test work or further setbacks in project development.
Why it matters: Staying in this range means the company is managing its money well during tough times.
Supportive ifThe company spent between $85M and $90M on capital.
Worry ifThe company spent more than $90M on capital.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating shipment goals shows strong coal demand and good operations.
Supportive ifCoal shipments for Q3 reach between 950,000 and 1,100,000 tons.
Worry ifShipments fall below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: If cash costs go above the guidance range, it may show more challenges for Ramaco.
Worry ifCash costs per ton sold remain between $96 and $99.
Less concerning ifCash costs above $99 per ton show rising challenges.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$389 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $897 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,368 loss on $10,000 · 83.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Hatch report will give insights into the financial viability of the Brook Mine. This project is key for Ramaco's growth in critical minerals.
Supportive ifThe Hatch report confirms a net present value of $8 billion and annual adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion.
Worry ifThe report shows less financial strength or delays in projects.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows good capital management and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported between $85M and $90M for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX reported outside the range of $85M to $90M for 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth. This is better than the last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Why it matters: This study will show details about the Brook Mine project. It may make more money.
Supportive ifThe new study from Hatch is in. It shows good signs for the Brook Mine.
Worry ifThe study is delayed or shows negative projections for the Brook Mine.
Why it matters: The materials sector is going down. Revenue growth might mean a recovery for Ramaco Resources.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Staying in the target range shows good cost control. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifCash cost of sales reported between $95 and $100 per ton for the next quarter.
Worry ifCash cost of sales exceeds $100 per ton, indicating rising costs.
Why it matters: This agreement could secure a supply chain for rare earth elements, boosting growth potential.
Supportive ifAn offtake agreement with REalloys for Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) is final.
Worry ifFailure to finalize the agreement or lack of progress in due diligence.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows how Ramaco uses its money and rewards shareholders. It can affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe Class B dividend of $0.1535 per share is paid on September 25, 2026.
Also watch forChanges to the dividend payment or amount before the payment date.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show the company is doing well. They want to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly Class B stock dividend will be announced on schedule.
Worry ifThe Class B stock dividend may be canceled or cut back.
Why it matters: If cash costs go over $99 per ton, it may show rising operational problems. This could hurt margins and profits.
Worry ifCash costs per ton sold remain below $99, indicating strong cost control.
Less concerning ifCash costs are more than $99 per ton. This shows there may be operational problems.
Why it matters: The Maben expansion is expected to increase low-vol coal production. This could enhance revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThe Maben expansion adds 0.6 million tons of premium low-vol coal production as planned.
Worry ifThe expansion does not meet production goals or has major delays.
Why it matters: This study will give new financial data for the critical minerals project. Good results could boost investor trust in the project's success.
Supportive ifThe interim study shows better financial data than the last Fluor report.
Worry ifThe interim study shows weaker financial data. It also shows delays in project schedules.
Why it matters: Completion of the pilot plant is a key step for the Brook Project. It signals progress toward full-scale operations and revenue generation.
Supportive ifThe pilot plant building is done on time. Testing can now start.
Worry ifDelays in the pilot plant construction push back the timeline for testing and production.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing financially. It is key for understanding the company's path.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better financial data and good guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses and bad guidance.