Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.98+3.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · METC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 23.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
METC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Ramaco Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K under Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, sha…
Why it matters: The study will test the Brook project's cost and timing. Hatch put construction costs at $3.2 billion, plus about $0.8 billion for unexpected costs.
Watch forThe interim study comes out by year-end. It shows lower costs or an earlier start than Hatch's $3.2 billion estimate and 2031 start date.
Also watch forThe study is late, or it shows costs at or above $4.0 billion and no earlier start than 2031.
Why it matters: Management says the loadout could cut Maben trucking costs by about $20 per ton. A delay would push back that cost benefit.
Supportive ifThe company reports the Maben rail loadout is complete by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe loadout is not complete by the end of Q4, or management delays its completion date.
Why it matters: Q2 brought a net loss of $15.4 million, and Ramaco cut its 2026 production and sales ranges. Q3 results will test those plans.
Watch forQ3 production is within the 3.6–3.9 million ton 2026 range, sales are within 4.0–4.3 million tons, and cost guidance stays at $96–$99 per ton.
Also watch forRamaco cuts any of those 2026 ranges again, or Q3 cash costs exceed $99 per ton.
Why it matters: A jury awarded $30 million, but attorney fees remain open. Post-trial motions or an appeal could reduce or delay payment.
Watch forThe court sets attorney fees. The $30 million award stays intact, and Chubb pays without an appeal reducing it.
Also watch forThe court cuts or sets aside the award, Chubb appeals and wins a reduction, or payment is not collected.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$311 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $798 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,623 loss on $10,000 · 76.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Costs were $99 per ton in Q2, while management expects Q3 costs near the top of its $96–$99 range. Higher fuel costs add pressure.
Worry ifQ3 cash cost per ton sold is above $99, or full-year cost guidance rises above $99.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash cost per ton sold is $99 or less, and full-year guidance stays at $96–$99.
Why it matters: The building was due to finish in fall 2026, with pilot operations set for 2027. Delays would slow a key test of the project.
Supportive ifRamaco reports the pilot building is complete in fall 2026. Pilot operations start in 2027.
Worry ifRamaco reports that the building is still unfinished after fall 2026. Or, pilot operations move past 2027.