MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.59+4.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGEE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
MGEE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 1, 2026, MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) and Madison Gas and Electric Company (MGE) amended and restated their existing credit agreements originally entered into on November 8, 2022, principally to extend their respective maturity dates to October 1, 2031, and, with respect to one of MGE's credit agreements with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., to increase the aggregate commitments from $90 million to $210 million. The amended and restated credit agree…
Why it matters: MGE raised one credit line from $90 million to $210 million. A large draw would show whether use of that added credit is rising.
Worry ifA filing reports that MGE has drawn more than $90 million on the expanded JPMorgan credit line.
Less concerning ifA later filing shows no draw above $90 million on that line.
Why it matters: Q2 net income included about $3.9 million in investment gains. Results without similar gains would show how much core earnings grew.
Watch forQ3 net income rises year over year, while the release shows little or no gain from investments.
Also watch forQ3 net income falls year over year, or gains from investments again account for much of the increase.
Why it matters: MGE raised its dividend by 7% in August, its 51st straight annual increase. Keeping the rate would confirm that step is in place.
Supportive ifThe next dividend declaration is at least $0.5083 per share.
Worry ifThe next declared dividend is below $0.5083 per share.
Why it matters: MGE aims to keep gas earnings steady. A sharp drop would break the pattern seen in both 2026 quarters.
Watch forQ3 gas net income is close to its Q3 2025 level, with little year-over-year change.
Also watch forQ3 gas net income falls clearly below Q3 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,869 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Electric earnings rose $3.0 million in Q2 and $5.5 million in Q1. Another increase would support the renewable project growth story.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 report, electric segment earnings are at least $3.0 million above Q3 2025.
Worry ifIn the Q3 report, electric segment earnings are flat or lower than Q3 2025.