MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.37-0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGEE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGEE — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events. On August 21, 2026, MGE Energy, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing an increase in its regular quarterly dividend on its outstanding shares of common stock. The release announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.5083 per share, payable on September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2026. The Company is filing a copy of that press release as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: How the company handles the earnings miss shows if it can improve financial performance.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a significant increase in net income compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 earnings continue to show a decline or do not improve from Q1 2026 results.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase shows MGE cares about its shareholders. This can help build trust.
Supportive ifMGE has announced another dividend increase. This comes after a recent 7% raise.
Worry ifMGE does not announce any further dividend increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Key economic reports can affect energy demand and pricing. This impacts MGE's revenue and earnings.
Watch forEconomic reports show stronger growth than expected. This leads to higher energy demand.
Also watch forEconomic reports show a slowdown. This leads to lower energy demand.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback program can signal management's confidence and impact share value. Investors will watch for clarity.
Watch forManagement talks about the share buyback program. They give exact volumes or dollar amounts.
Also watch forNo updates or further details on the buyback program are provided in the next earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $212 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,579 loss on $10,000 · 15.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if MGE Energy continues its growth trend. Investors will look for strong earnings to confirm the positive momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceed $1.32, showing continued growth from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share fall below $1.32, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: The upcoming dividend payment shows MGE's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.5083 per share is made on September 15, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can show growth chances and plans for MGE Energy.
Watch forMGE announced it completed an acquisition. This will help MGE grow in the market.
Also watch forNo updates or failed talks on M&A activities.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A could show growth potential and strategic direction. Successful deals may enhance earnings.
Supportive ifA press release about a completed acquisition or merger. This fits with growth strategies.
Worry ifThere are no big updates or announcements about M&A activity in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show a strong commitment to managing money. They also return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifA share repurchase announcement for the next quarter is expected soon.
Worry ifNo announcement or further details on share buybacks in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Continued growth in the electric segment shows MGE's renewable energy projects are working. This supports their growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 electric segment earnings increase year over year by more than $3 million.
Worry ifQ3 electric segment earnings do not grow or decline year over year.
Why it matters: Stable gas segment earnings indicate MGE is meeting its goal to maintain steady performance. This can support overall financial health.
Watch forGas segment earnings show minimal variation year over year in Q3.
Also watch forGas segment earnings show significant decline year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show MGE's commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This can impact stock performance.
Watch forMGE shares details about the amounts for share buybacks.
Also watch forNo updates or details on the share buyback program are provided in the next quarter.