Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$78.36+0.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.08 → 4.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGEE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain active share buyback and dividend program | The company returned value with a $0.475 quarterly dividend and active share buybacks. | Intact | Dividend cut or buyback suspension announced | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MGEE is a regulated utility with a measured growth angle from renewable energy projects. Its long-term thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but remains in watch status because recent financial performance is below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to MGEE being cheap versus peers, with expectations close to neutral. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not show unusually stretched expectations, though valuation model confidence is high.
Near term, electric-segment earnings growth has been consistent, while gas-segment earnings have been stable with mixed delivery against management’s goal. Recent overall performance is neutral, and the stated risk of a guidance cut or another weak result remains relevant; the estimated miss probability is 28%.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued growth from renewable energy projects and steady gas earnings, alongside clearer delivery on share repurchases. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or continued strong results from major utility peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-3 year view, MGEE has a credible but measured growth case, with electric-segment progress balanced by uneven management delivery and recent results below peers. The evidence supports a mildly favorable but watchful thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MGE Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.72 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $3.72 in FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.72 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 20261.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 10% YoY | A primary condition in MGE Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 8.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20268.37778 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.13 → $4.12 · observed estimates
$0.81B → $0.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.13 | $807,669,107 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.14 | $822,018,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.14 | $822,143,330 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.24 | $826,678,330 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.24 | $826,678,330 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.14 | $807,835,773 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.15 | $813,882,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.09 | $833,323,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.08 | $822,393,428 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.12 | $821,545,071 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.12 | $820,668,321 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.