MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.37-0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
MGE Energy grew revenue 10% in Q1 2026. EPS is guided to $3.72 for full year 2026. The company returned value with a $0.475 quarterly dividend and active share buybacks. Net income rose from $41.6M to $48.5M in Q1, showing improving financial performance.
MGE Energy's forward EPS estimate for Q3 2026 is $1.15, down from $1.21 thirty days ago, signaling potential earnings pressure. The company faces a sector headwind and a negative free cash flow yield of -4%. Its PEG ratio is very high at 27.69, suggesting stretched valuation.
The stock trades about 25% above our fair value near $66. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth, but our model forecasts slower 2% EPS growth over three years. The price reflects a durable premium that may be optimistic given recent earnings revisions.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or buyback suspension announced
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.72 in FY 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company with a focus on renewable energy growth. The current thesis state is mixed, reflecting both stable earnings in certain segments and challenges in the broader sector environment.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that it expects MGEE to perform reasonably well despite sector challenges. The valuation is aligned with peers, suggesting that expectations are modest but not overly optimistic.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, with management successfully growing the electric segment through renewable projects. However, the gas segment's performance is mixed, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including potential guidance cuts from management, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and the performance of sector leaders. Positive momentum from these areas could provide support for MGEE.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 7%. This dividend increase shows a strong capital allocation strategy. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Pursue mergers and acquisitions to support growth and strategic expansion.
Newly stated in 2026-05-08. The company disclosed entering into a Material Definitive Agreement related to M&A activity. No financial details or subsequent updates were provided, indicating initial engagement with limited delivery evidence so far.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGEE's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities. Not investment advice.