MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-07-07
$46.64-0.51%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.64. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 MGM trades at 15× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $30–$55. Note: our $73 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($30–$55). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $48.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $182.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $233.56 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $29.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$30.00 – $55.00 (median $48.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $90.65 |
| 13.9 |
| 7.65 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $130.40 | 19.5 | 6.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $72.28 | 23.2 | 3.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $142.70 | 2.1 | 68.43 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $47.10 | 15.1 | 3.12 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $79.20 | 23.2 | 3.42 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $182.38 | 19.5 | 9.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $39.74 | 23.2 | 1.72 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $147.20 | 2.1 | 70.59 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $25.89 | 15.1 | 1.72 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $228.10 | 19.5 | 11.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $26.67 | 23.2 | 1.15 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $150.22 | 2.1 | 72.04 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $17.38 | 15.1 | 1.15 | Analyst | low |