MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
$32.54-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION This current report on Form 8-K is being furnished to disclose the press release issued by the Registrant on October 28, 2026. The purpose of the press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1, was to announce the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it b…
Why it matters: Q3 room rates fell, and Strip revenue and EBITDAR also fell. A room-rate rebound would test whether October's strength lasts.
Watch forIn the next reported quarter, Las Vegas Strip RevPAR is flat or higher year over year, after falling 8% in Q3.
Also watch forIn the next reported quarter, Las Vegas Strip RevPAR falls more than 8% year over year.
Why it matters: MGM reported $164 million of buybacks in Q2 but gave no Q3 amount. The recent voting-agreement change supports its stated plan to repurchase shares.
Supportive ifA later filing or earnings release reports new share repurchases after Q3.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports no share repurchases. MGM may also state that its repurchase plan has stopped.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,620 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.