MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.22+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION This current report on Form 8-K is being furnished to disclose the press release issued by the Registrant on July 29, 2026. The purpose of the press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1, was to announce the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed…
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects revenue. A drop could signal trouble for MGM's business.
Worry ifConsumer spending growth drops below 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifConsumer spending growth remains above 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in Adjusted EBITDA shows less profit and more problems.
Worry ifQ1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA falls below $522 million, which is a 10% decline from $580 million in Q1 2025.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA stays above $522 million. This shows profit is stable or getting better.
Why it matters: A bigger capital plan shows strong growth goals and good financial health.
Supportive ifMGM announces a capital plan over $150 million.
Worry ifMGM's capital plan stays below $150 million.
Why it matters: Going over this capital target could show good management and growth chances.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress over $150 million in the plan.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or cuts to the $150 million plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,957 loss on $10,000 · 19.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More convention bookings would help revenue growth. This shows tourism is recovering. This is important for MGM's Las Vegas business.
Supportive ifConvention bookings exceed prior year levels by more than 10%.
Worry ifConvention bookings fall below prior year levels.
Why it matters: The all-inclusive promotion can bring in more customers. This helps MGM grow.
Watch forThe all-inclusive promotion increases bookings. It also raises revenue in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe all-inclusive promotion fails to increase bookings or revenue in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better performance from BetMGM can help profits and market position in gaming.
Supportive ifBetMGM shows year-over-year growth in net revenue and Adjusted EBITDA next quarter.
Worry ifBetMGM shows a decline in net revenue or Adjusted EBITDA in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand. It also shows good management in Las Vegas.
Supportive ifLas Vegas Strip Resorts revenue grows year over year by more than 3%.
Worry ifLas Vegas Strip Resorts revenue declines or grows less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in digital revenue helps the company expand in online gaming.
Supportive ifMGM Digital revenue increases year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifMGM Digital revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management's confidence. They want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifMGM repurchases more than $200 million in shares over the next quarter.
Worry ifMGM repurchases less than $100 million in shares over the next quarter.
Why it matters: If earnings miss again, people will worry about how well the company is doing.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income below $292 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows net income above $292 million.
Why it matters: Progress on MGM Osaka is crucial for future growth and market expansion in Asia.
Supportive ifManagement shares big news or funding for MGM Osaka.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays in MGM Osaka development plans.