MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.22+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues >= $2.2 billion in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
MGM is growing revenue modestly with Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues at $2.2 billion in Q1 2026. The company repurchased $90 million of shares in Q1, showing strong capital return. Earnings beat in Q4 2025 with EPS of $1.60, signaling operational strength. New promotions and all-inclusive offers support steady growth.
Revenue growth is slow at only 4% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Management progress on key growth priorities is behind or mixed. Earnings missed in Q1 2026 and capital obligations increased, which may pressure cash flow. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is expensive relative to peers.
The price is about 36% below our fair value near $72, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect only about 1% revenue growth, which is lower than our 4%+ growth driver. Our fair value is well above the Street median, indicating upside if growth improves.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.80 for FY 2026
Breaks if: Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues fall below $2.0 billion in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
MGM represents a durable compounder in the consumer discretionary sector. The company is focused on enhancing its Las Vegas Strip Resorts and expanding its digital businesses, which supports a positive long-term view.
The current valuation suggests that the market views MGM as expensive compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This indicates that investors may be anticipating strong future performance, but the recent earnings miss raises questions about those expectations.
MGM's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, supported by robust earnings quality and ongoing management priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the high miss probability in the industry, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly in Las Vegas and digital expansion. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance from peers will play a crucial role in shaping outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. MGM's strong performance in Las Vegas enhances its growth outlook. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about future expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on improving Las Vegas Strip Resorts with room remodels and new promotions.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $50 million in any quarter
Overall, MGM's position is solid, but it faces challenges that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.