Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MGM Resorts (MGM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
$32.54-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.96 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS >= $1.95 for FY 2026 | Earnings beat in Q4 2025 with EPS of $1.60, signaling operational strength. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.80 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.95 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 28, 2026-0.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MGM is a resort and digital-gaming business with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or steady compounder. The thesis weakened this week after another earnings miss, with recent performance dropping relative to its industry.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to MGM being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 77% premium to peers and an expectations gap of -0.41. Overall, the evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, but also rates value as expensive; the market’s expectations therefore leave limited room for weak execution.
Near-term results may remain uneven: third-quarter Las Vegas Strip revenue fell 2% year over year, while regional revenue rose 1% and MGM China revenue rose 5%. Digital revenue grew 6%, and its operating loss narrowed, though the segment remained loss-making. Recent earnings misses and a 52% estimated miss probability make the next report a key near-term risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on stronger, broader progress in core resorts and continued digital improvement toward profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would add a meaningful negative; results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could also signal whether the sector backdrop is improving or weakening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGM’s established resort base and improving digital results support the thesis, but recent misses, mixed resort performance, and an expensive valuation make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| MGM is growing revenue modestly with Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues at $2.2 billion in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues fall below $2.0 billion in any quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchases of at least $90 million per quarter | A supporting condition in MGM Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=90000000 USD. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $50 million in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““The amended voting agreement announced earlier today establishes a highly supportive framework that enables MGM Resorts to confidently pursue value-creating share repurchases as part of our ongoing commitment to enhancing shareholder value and driving longer-term growth,” said Jonathan Halkyard, Chief Financial Officer of MGM Resorts International.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.21 → $1.56 · observed estimates
$17.95B → $17.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.21 | $17,945,158,400 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.18 | $17,898,218,260 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.18 | $17,898,218,260 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.18 | $17,898,218,260 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.18 | $17,911,331,047 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.21 | $17,937,120,560 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.21 | $17,937,120,560 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.03 | $17,948,274,590 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.10 | $17,916,581,885 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.04 | $17,952,427,630 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.04 | $17,952,427,630 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.04 | $17,947,546,970 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.04 | $17,947,547,470 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.04 | $17,947,546,970 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.04 | $17,947,546,970 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.04 | $17,947,546,970 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.04 | $17,947,546,970 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.06 | $17,917,087,106 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.00 | $17,911,545,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.00 | $17,910,233,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.00 | $17,906,083,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.00 | $17,906,083,483 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.95 | $17,852,207,282 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.95 | $17,852,195,508 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.96 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.96 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.96 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.96 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.96 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.95 | $17,848,542,820 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.92 | $17,843,524,058 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.92 | $17,846,762,153 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.92 | $17,846,762,153 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.92 | $17,846,762,153 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.92 | $17,846,762,153 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.90 | $17,832,568,463 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.87 | $17,797,833,606 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.87 | $17,790,400,273 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.87 | $17,790,400,273 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.87 | $17,790,400,273 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.85 | $17,779,462,177 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.85 | $17,779,462,177 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.81 | $17,767,755,915 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.79 | $17,754,744,142 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.74 | $17,742,820,078 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.74 | $17,742,820,078 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.74 | $17,720,807,106 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.74 | $17,720,807,106 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.74 | $17,720,807,106 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.74 | $17,720,807,106 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.74 | $17,720,807,106 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.65 | $17,705,369,361 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.55 | $17,655,749,883 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.55 | $17,649,359,387 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.55 | $17,649,359,387 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.55 | $17,649,359,387 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.56 | $17,639,838,160 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.56 | $17,639,838,160 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.56 | $17,639,838,160 | 10 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 17 recorded
1 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.