Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.98-4.28%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.96 → 1.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS between $1.50 and $1.80 in FY26 | The company targets adjusted EPS between $1.50 and $1.80. | Broken | Adjusted EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MGPI is a cyclical consumer-staples business, meaning its results can be sensitive to economic conditions and industry demand. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence, because operational adjustments and earnings beats have not yet produced a clear recovery in consolidated sales.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations may already reflect some business weakness. Valuation fell by 17.8 points in the recent period, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility.
In the near term, recent earnings beats and a supportive sector backdrop are positives, but consolidated sales declined year over year in both supplied quarters. Management has repeated its growth roadmap and adjusted distilling production, yet sales trends and cost results show mixed progress; risk remains elevated, and the evidence on future performance is limited.
The near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut, or further weakening in jobs that raises recession concerns for cyclical businesses. On the favorable side, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the backdrop; over the multi-year view, the key test is whether MGPI’s roadmap and production adjustments lead to sustained sales improvement.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on a recovery in sales and more consistent execution, while near-term guidance and economic conditions remain important risks. Recent earnings beats help, but the evidence so far supports watchful uncertainty rather than a confirmed turnaround. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~20000000 USD. |
| Intact |
| Capex significantly deviates from $20M in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $4.659M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~20000000 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20264,659,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $480M and $500M in FY26 | A primary condition in MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=480000000 USD. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $480M in FY26 | Revenue: $117.911M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=480000000 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026117,911,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.10 → $1.90 · observed estimates
$0.51B → $0.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.10 | $508,462,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.10 | $508,462,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.10 | $508,462,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.03 | $508,462,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.03 | $508,462,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.03 | $508,462,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.10 | $508,462,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.04 | $504,455,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.99 | $504,455,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.96 | $503,695,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.96 | $503,686,780 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.94 | $503,137,380 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.92 | $503,983,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.90 | $503,583,400 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.