MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.98-4.28%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGPI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Amendment No. 2 to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 2”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”), the other loan parties party thereto, and the lenders party thereto. Amendment No. 2 amended the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated February 14, 2020 among the Company, as borr…
Why it matters: Brown goods sales fell 47% in Q3 amid high barrel inventories. A smaller drop would show the pressure is easing.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows brown goods sales down less than 47% year over year, or growing.
Worry ifA later quarter shows brown goods sales down 47% or more year over year again.
Why it matters: Penelope grew 12% in Q3 while premium plus sales fell 1%. Continued brand growth would support the spirits business.
Supportive ifA later report shows Penelope Bourbon sales growth above 10% year over year.
Worry ifA later report shows Penelope Bourbon sales flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Leverage was 3.6x at quarter end, even as the company paid down debt. Further progress would ease debt pressure.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports net debt leverage below 3.6x.
Worry ifA later quarter reports net debt leverage above 3.6x.
Why it matters: The company plans to change its name and ticker. Exchange and company notices can confirm the change took effect.
Watch forCompany and Nasdaq notices show the name Sempreon and ticker CASK in effect on November 2.
Also watch forCompany or Nasdaq notices show the name or ticker change was delayed or did not take effect.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,110 loss on $10,000 · 51.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.