MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.40+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGPI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Amendment No. 2 to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 2”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”), the other loan parties party thereto, and the lenders party thereto. Amendment No. 2 amended the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated February 14, 2020 among the Company, as borr…
Why it matters: Meeting this target is crucial to stay on track for the full-year revenue guidance of $480M-$500M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $120M, indicating strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $100M, raising doubts about meeting full-year guidance.
Why it matters: Sales below this level would show ongoing problems in the distilling sector.
Worry ifQ3 sales were below $125 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales were above $125 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this capex guidance is key for future growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 capital spending was about $5M.
Worry ifQ2 capital spending dropped below $2M. This means more cuts.
Why it matters: Keeping adjusted EPS above $1.50 shows earnings are strong despite market issues. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported above $1.50 for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $1.50 for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher spending may show plans for growth or a need to fix issues.
Supportive ifCapital spending goes over $20 million in 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending stays at or below $20 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth is crucial to meet the full-year guidance of $480M-$500M. A strong Q2 could signal recovery.
Supportive ifQ2 sales growth of 15% or more compared to Q1 results.
Worry ifQ2 sales grew less than 5%. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows smart spending of money. It shows management wants to grow.
Supportive ifCapital spending for the year is about $20 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $15 million for the year.
Why it matters: Capex spending is important for MGP's growth plans. Meeting this target shows commitment to investment.
Supportive ifQ2 capex reported at or above $20M, showing strong investment.
Worry ifQ2 capex was below $15M. This shows less investment activity.
Why it matters: Better gross margin shows they manage costs and prices well. It may mean profits are improving.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 37.4%.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 37.4%.
Why it matters: A significant decline in sales would show ongoing challenges in the market. It could signal deeper issues in MGP's business strategy.
Worry ifQ3 sales decline greater than 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales decline less than 15% or show growth year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in the premium plus portfolio is crucial for overall revenue health. It indicates successful brand strategy.
Supportive ifPremium plus spirits sales growth reported above 5% in Q3.
Worry ifPremium plus spirits sales growth reported below 5% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,503 loss on $10,000 · 45.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.