Mohawk Industries (MHK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.63+1.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MHK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
MHK — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
President — An Nuyttens: The filing announces the external hire of a new segment President to succeed an interim leader who is being promoted to CEO, representing a standard succession and staffing change rather than a loss of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Price increases can help margins but may hurt sales volume. This balance is key for future growth.
Watch forSales volume goes up even with price hikes for products.
Also watch forSales volume goes down when prices go up.
Why it matters: Sales performance will show if Mohawk can keep up momentum in tough markets. It shows demand and market share.
Worry ifQ3 sales show a seasonal drop from Q2, excluding currency and shipping impacts.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales remain stable or grow compared to Q2, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Mohawk is managing costs and pricing amid inflation. It reflects the company's ability to adapt to market conditions.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS guidance is confirmed at $2.50 to $2.60. This includes tariff refunds.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EPS guidance is below $2.38 to $2.48. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Mohawk is managing costs and prices. It shows management's view on profits.
Watch forManagement confirms adjusted EPS guidance of $2.50 to $2.60 for Q3 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts adjusted EPS guidance to below $2.50 for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $340 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,250 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in the commercial sector is important. It does better than residential and shows market share gains.
Supportive ifNet sales in the commercial sector show growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifSales in the commercial sector fall or stay the same. This shows a loss of market share.
Why it matters: Sales from new products will show if Mohawk's innovation works in a tough market.
Supportive ifSales from new products are better than expected. This helps overall revenue.
Worry ifSales from new products are below expectations. This shows weak market interest.
Why it matters: Cutting costs can improve profit margins. This helps reduce the effects of inflation.
Supportive ifManagement reports achieving $60 million in cost savings by the end of 2027.
Worry ifNo major cost savings are reported. This shows challenges in managing expenses.
Why it matters: The leadership change may affect Mohawk's strategy and focus. This matters for long-term growth.
Watch forPaul De Cock outlines a clear strategy that builds on existing strengths and drives growth.
Also watch forUncertainty or lack of clarity in the new CEO's strategy leads to market concerns.
Why it matters: Better market conditions may lead to more sales for Mohawk. This is true, especially in home building.
Supportive ifReports show new home construction is picking up. There is also more consumer confidence.
Worry ifContinued weakness in the home resale market or new home construction remains soft.
Why it matters: Price increases are a direct response to rising costs. They can improve margins if accepted by consumers.
Supportive ifThe company is raising prices in many product types.
Worry ifThe company says price increases are turned down or do not affect sales much.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds provide a financial boost. Their impact on margins will show how well Mohawk manages costs.
Supportive ifMargins improve due to the inclusion of tariff refunds in financial results.
Worry ifMargins do not improve or get worse. This means tariff refunds are not covering costs well.
Why it matters: The leadership change may impact company strategy and operations. Investors will look for signs of stability or change.
Watch forPaul De Cock shares new plans that boost growth and innovation.
Also watch forPaul De Cock does not share a clear strategy. This causes uncertainty for investors.
Why it matters: Consumer confidence affects spending on home renovations. A drop could signal weaker sales ahead.
Worry ifThe consumer confidence index is going up. This means people may spend more.
Less concerning ifConsumer confidence index falls. This suggests people are still careful with spending.
Why it matters: Price increases are a response to rising costs. Their success will show how well Mohawk can maintain margins in a competitive market.
Supportive ifSuccessful price increases lead to better gross margins in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPrice increases fail to offset rising costs, leading to declining margins.
Why it matters: Housing turnover affects demand for flooring products. A rebound could signal a recovery in Mohawk's sales.
Supportive ifU.S. housing turnover goes up a lot. This leads to higher sales for Mohawk.
Worry ifHousing turnover stays the same or goes down. This negatively affects Mohawk's sales.
Why it matters: Successful restructuring will show Mohawk can adapt and make more money in a tough market.
Supportive ifOperating income is much higher than in past quarters. This shows the restructuring is working.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same. This suggests restructuring efforts are not working.
Why it matters: Innovation helps revenue grow. Updates can show future sales performance.
Supportive ifNew product launches or updates are announced that help revenue growth.
Worry ifNo new product announcements or updates that impact revenue growth.
Why it matters: Cost management is a top priority. Progress here can improve profit margins.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 10% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales and improve margins. Their success is crucial for Mohawk's growth strategy.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of at least two new product collections in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew product launches fail to gain traction or receive negative market feedback.
Why it matters: Price increases can affect sales volume and margins. Investors will assess how well Mohawk manages costs.
Worry ifMohawk raises prices in many product categories. This happens without losing much sales volume.
Less concerning ifPrice increases cause sales volume to drop. This shows that consumers are resisting.
Why it matters: New pricing actions will show how Mohawk is handling rising costs. They want to keep margins.
Supportive ifManagement announces new pricing actions for Q3. These will help offset higher input costs.
Worry ifNo new pricing actions are announced. This suggests trouble in managing cost pressures.
Why it matters: The new president's plans may boost growth in international markets. This could impact overall performance.
Supportive ifEarly reports show better performance in the Flooring Rest of the World segment under An Nuyttens.
Worry ifPerformance metrics in the segment decline or remain flat after the leadership change.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong demand and good management. This is true even in tough market conditions.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 5% year over year, indicating strong market performance.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth is below 3%, indicating a potential decline in demand.