Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$134.32-2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.91 → 11.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MHO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share near $5.00 in 2025 | The company targets earnings per share of about $5.00 for 2025. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.50 in FY25 | Diluted EPS: $2.56 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $5.00. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20262.56 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MHO is a homebuilder with a cyclical business, meaning results can shift with conditions across its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal recently moved from mixed to cautious after two earnings misses.
The evidence describes MHO as cheap versus peers, but also tags expectations as stretched, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is 0.24, and confidence in the valuation model is medium. Fragility is rated low, rather than showing a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Over the first nine months, new contracts rose to 6,598 from 6,278 a year earlier, and the community count increased to 246 from 233. Third-quarter contracts declined year over year, and MHO reported earnings misses in July and October, so near-term execution remains uneven. The balance sheet is a support: third-quarter cash was $621 million, shareholders’ equity was $3.3 billion, and homebuilding debt-to-capital was 18%.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers DHI, PHM, and LEN would support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support. The longer-term case also depends on continued growth in contracts and communities while maintaining financial strength.
For the next one to three years, MHO’s thesis rests on growing its homebuilding operation and using its balance-sheet strength to manage a mixed operating picture. The recent earnings misses and cautious signal make execution and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in M/I Homes, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is maintain profit margins near recent levels. |
| Broken |
| profit margins decline more than 200 basis points from recent levels |
Net margin: 6.18% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 23, 20266.184826 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
grow average community count by 5% in 2025 | M/I Homes aims to grow its average community count by 5% in 2025 supported by an AI partnership. | Intact | average community count growth falls below 3% in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.23 → $11.22 · observed estimates
$4.49B → $4.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.23 | $4,485,988,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.23 | $4,485,988,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.23 | $4,485,988,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.23 | $4,485,988,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.26 | $4,381,318,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.26 | $4,381,318,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.23 | $4,485,988,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.03 | $4,405,688,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.45 | $4,405,688,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.65 | $4,444,688,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.65 | $4,444,688,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.65 | $4,444,688,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.47 | $4,444,688,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.47 | $4,444,688,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.49 | $4,407,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.49 | $4,407,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.49 | $4,407,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.32 | $4,407,750,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.91 | $4,355,229,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.17 | $4,295,804,575 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.17 | $4,172,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.22 | $4,160,075,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.