M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$148.26+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MHO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
MHO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On July 29, 2026, M/I Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting financial results for the three- and six-months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release, including information concerning forward-looking statements and factors that may affect our future results, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: A decrease in backlog units could signal a slowdown in future revenue and production.
Worry ifBacklog units fall below 2,426 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifBacklog units remain at or above 2,426 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue shows that the housing market is getting better.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: More cancellations may mean buyers are unsure. This can affect future sales.
Worry ifCancellation rate goes above 10%. This shows buyers are more uncertain.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate stays below 10%. This shows buyers are confident.
Why it matters: Continued growth in new contracts signals strong demand and market position for M/I Homes.
Supportive ifNew contracts increase year over year by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifNew contracts decline year over year or grow less than 3% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $343 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,514 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The number of homes delivered affects revenue and profits. A drop shows market problems.
Worry ifHomes delivered in Q3 decrease more than 5% compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifHomes delivered in Q3 increase or stay flat compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show recovery in making money. This matters during tough markets.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings per share exceed $2.55.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings per share fall below $2.55.
Why it matters: A drop in new contracts would signal weakening demand in a challenging market.
Worry ifNew contracts fall below 2,350 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNew contracts remain above 2,350 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts are a key indicator of future revenue. Growth here signals strong demand.
Supportive ifNew contracts in Q2 2026 exceed 2,350 units, showing demand strength.
Worry ifNew contracts in Q2 2026 fall below 2,350 units, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand in a tough housing market.
Worry ifNew contracts fall below 2,200 in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifNew contracts are over 2,200. This shows demand is stable.
Why it matters: Growth in community count supports future sales and market presence.
Supportive ifCommunity count increases by 5% or more in the next report.
Worry ifCommunity count growth is under 5%. This shows slower expansion.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential shift in the sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the last two quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will indicate overall health and demand in the housing market.
Watch forRevenue in Q3 2026 grows year over year by more than 5%.
Also watch forRevenue in Q3 2026 declines year over year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: More cancellations could mean buyers are unsure. This could hurt future sales.
Worry ifCancellation rate exceeds 10% in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate is at or below 10%. This shows buyers are confident.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it means big demand problems. This would hurt future revenue.
Worry ifBacklog sales value falls below $1 billion in the next report.
Less concerning ifBacklog sales are over $1 billion. This shows demand is stable.
Why it matters: A stable or growing backlog shows M/I Homes can earn more money in the future.
Supportive ifBacklog sales value increases year over year in Q3.
Worry ifBacklog sales value decreases year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A lower cancellation rate shows that customers feel more confident. This helps keep sales steady.
Supportive ifCancellation rate drops below 8% in Q3.
Worry ifCancellation rate rises above 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how M/I Homes is handling market challenges.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $3.50 in Q3.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.50 in Q3.