Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.39-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
MIAX beats earnings estimates. It aims for 27-29% profit margin in 2026. The company uses advanced tech to improve trading. It has strong risk controls and good compliance.
MIAX is losing money and issues many new shares. Revenue is expected to fall 44%. The stock price is down 23% from its high.
The stock trades about 17% above our fair value near $38. Analysts expect revenue to drop 44%. We think this is too pessimistic.
Breaks if: large share issuances continue or increase materially
Breaks if: earnings fail to beat estimates in any quarter next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the options business. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it is influenced by broader sector dynamics.
The market currently prices MIAX at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth expectations are already factored in. However, the expectations gap suggests that there may be room for re-rating if performance continues to impress.
Management is focused on driving growth and expanding product offerings, which has led to strong revenue growth in the options business. While the near-term risk of missing estimates is low, there is awareness of recent misses in the industry that could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for MIAX. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Valuation fell by 10.0 points (from 52.0 to 42.0).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve earnings results that exceed market expectations.
Breaks if: profit margin falls below 25% in FY26
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below -44% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, MIAX's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.