Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.39-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MIAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -49.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MIAX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-21
Other Events. On July 20, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey (the “Court”) entered an Order of Dismissal With Prejudice (the “Order”) that dismisses all claims for relief and counterclaims asserted in the previously disclosed litigation between Miami International Holdings, Inc. and certain of its subsidiaries (the “Company”) and Nasdaq, Inc. and certain of its subsidiaries (“Nasdaq”, such matter, the “Litigation”). The parties have now resolved all claims and counte…
Why it matters: More market share shows MIAX is strong and can grow. It shows MIAX's place in the market.
Supportive ifMarket share in multi-listed options is over 17.3%.
Worry ifMarket share in multi-listed options falls below 16.0%.
Why it matters: Growth in the international segment shows MIAX's plan to expand is working.
Supportive ifInternational segment revenue grows more than 100% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifInternational segment revenue growth slows to less than 50% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if MIAX continues its strong growth trend. Investors look for consistent performance.
Supportive ifQ2 net revenue growth of over 40% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue growth below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: If the tax rate exceeds 29%, it could impact net income and future guidance.
Worry ifAdjusted effective tax rate reported above 29% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted effective tax rate remains within the 27% to 29% range for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $420 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,700 loss on $10,000 · 37.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If options revenue growth slows, it may mean demand is weak or market conditions are bad.
Worry ifOptions net revenue growth below 30% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOptions net revenue growth remains above 30% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth signals a potential slowdown. This affects MIAX's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans can show shifts in growth plans or financial health.
Watch forSpending stays between $40 million and $45 million as expected.
Also watch forSpending goes over $45 million. This may mean overspending or changes in plans.
Why it matters: Keeping the tax rate guidance shows good money management. It also means following the rules.
Watch forManagement says the tax rate is between 27% and 29%.
Also watch forManagement changes the tax rate guidance to below or above 27%-29%.
Why it matters: Continued growth in options volume shows strong demand and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the average daily volume in options is over 11 million contracts.
Worry ifQ3 average daily volume in options falls below 10 million contracts.
Why it matters: Court case results can change costs and the company's financial health.
Worry ifNo new litigation claims filed and previous claims remain dismissed.
Less concerning ifNew litigation claims filed or previous claims reopened.
Why it matters: Maintaining the tax rate shows stable management and can impact net income.
Watch forAdjusted effective tax rate remains between 27% and 29% for full year 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted effective tax rate moves outside the 27% to 29% range.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA margin shows how well the company runs. It also shows how much money it makes.
Watch forThe adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 is over 54%.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 falls below 51%.