Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$93.54-3.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MIRM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successfully integrate Bluejay Therapeutics acquisition | A supporting condition in Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration and realize synergies. | Intact | Acquisition fails to add value or causes disruption | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is still active but in a watch state, with elevated risk and volatile management execution.
The evidence points to MIRM being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations are cautious. The pricing signal is marked justified, with no fragility gates fired, but this does not remove the business risks.
Near term, revenue growth and a higher 2026 sales outlook support the business, and cash and investments increased in the second quarter. However, the next-quarter miss risk is elevated, performance has lagged the industry cohort, and recent litigation filings add uncertainty. Over the multi-year view, pipeline progress could broaden growth, but evidence on clinical milestones is mixed.
A key swing factor is whether MIRM can deliver against its raised 2026 sales guidance without reversing course, which would damage management credibility. Pipeline milestones and continued product growth matter over the multi-year view. A weakening jobs picture could weigh on the sector, while strength from major healthcare companies could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MIRM’s thesis depends on turning commercial momentum into sustained growth while advancing its pipeline and managing elevated execution risk. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, but weak results and loss-making status leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Convertible notes provide capital for future plans. |
| Intact |
| Financial distress or inability to service notes |
Revenue $185.7M vs $178.0M expected; 2026 guidance $715-$720M Q3 revenue beat expectations; 2026 sales guidance raised to $715-$720M with cash flow positive target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $660-$680 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $660-$680 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $660 million in FY26 | Revenue: $185.721M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $660-$680 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026185,721,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.66 → $-1.04 · observed estimates
$0.81B → $0.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.66 | $812,602,028 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.66 | $812,602,028 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.66 | $812,602,028 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $815,148,390 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $823,550,200 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $823,550,200 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.78 | $812,694,286 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.76 | $813,657,955 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.76 | $813,656,125 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.70 | $816,620,678 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.66 | $816,978,522 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.66 | $818,473,445 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.66 | $818,473,445 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.66 | $818,473,445 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.66 | $818,473,445 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.67 | $818,440,997 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.70 | $818,441,028 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.70 | $818,441,028 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.70 | $818,864,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.70 | $818,864,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.70 | $818,864,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.70 | $818,864,105 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.61 | $826,352,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.61 | $826,352,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.63 | $824,502,420 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.63 | $824,502,390 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.04 | $846,298,013 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.