Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.90+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Mirum raised 2026 revenue guidance to $660-$680 million. Sales grew from $99M to $160M in 15 months. The company completed a key acquisition to boost growth. Convertible notes provide capital for future plans.
Mirum is still losing money with negative EPS. Recent earnings missed estimates. Convertible debt adds financial risk. Growth depends on successful drug development.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $132. Analysts expect 27% revenue growth. Our fair value is 9% below the Street median of $145.
Breaks if: Acquisition fails to add value or causes disruption
Breaks if: Financial distress or inability to service notes
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
MIRM represents a speculative growth investment with a focus on advancing its product pipeline. The current thesis state is cautious, given the mixed recent financial performance and the need for management to execute on their growth plans.
The market appears to price MIRM as relatively cheap compared to its peers, indicating a negative expectations gap. This suggests that investors may have already factored in some level of risk associated with the company's recent earnings misses.
Management has raised their sales guidance, reflecting some positive momentum in product sales. However, the overall financial performance has been weak, and there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations, which could further impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to meet its sales guidance and advance its product pipeline successfully. Additionally, broader sector performance, particularly from leading companies, could influence MIRM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report showed a miss. This miss raises concerns about the company's performance. There are no new strengths to support the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Raise capital through issuance of $690 million aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $660 million in FY26
Continue growing net product sales and raise full year 2026 revenue guidance to $660-$680 million.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MIRM's success will depend on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.