Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$93.54-3.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MIRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 22.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MIRM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing a corporate update and announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purpos…
Why it matters: VANTAGE tests volixibat for itching linked to PBC. Its results will show whether the drug may have a path in this disease.
Watch forQ1 2027 topline results show VANTAGE met its main study goal.
Also watch forVANTAGE misses its main goal, shows a safety concern, or results slip beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The study met its main goal in ultra-rare cholestatic diseases. More detail can show how strong the result was and what comes next.
Watch forFull EXPAND results confirm the main goal was met and Mirum reports a clear next step for this use.
Also watch forFull results do not support the main-goal claim, show a safety concern, or Mirum reports no path forward.
Why it matters: Sales rose to $176.2 million in Q2, and Mirum raised its full-year guide. Meeting the new range would show that growth continues.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 net product sales reach at least $680 million.
Worry ifFull-year net product sales fall below $680 million, or Mirum cuts its guide below that level.
Why it matters: The FDA asked for a Phase 3 study after the VISTAS results. That request may delay the planned NDA path based on VISTAS alone.
Worry ifMirum reports that the FDA accepts an NDA based on VISTAS without asking for a Phase 3 study.
Less concerning ifMirum confirms the FDA requires a Phase 3 study, or moves the possible NDA submission beyond H1 2027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,836 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These results test brelovitug in two late-stage studies. Positive results would add support for its path toward use in HDV.
Watch forBoth AZURE-1 and AZURE-4 meet their stated main study goals in the reported results.
Also watch forEither study misses its main goal, shows a safety issue, or reports results after its stated 2026 window.