Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.90+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MIRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MIRM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing a corporate update and announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…
Why it matters: This money can support growth plans. Good results could improve the company's finances.
Watch forThe company uses the $690M for growth projects and reports good results.
Also watch forThe funds do not lead to the expected growth or improvements.
Why it matters: Confirmation would show strong sales growth and good business momentum.
Supportive ifNet product sales exceed $680 million for 2026.
Worry ifNet product sales fall below $680 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Good results could show that volixibat works well. This may help future sales.
Supportive ifTopline results from the VANTAGE study show that volixibat works well.
Worry ifTopline results show that volixibat does not work well.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would help Mirum grow. It shows they want to expand.
Supportive ifThey say they have finished buying Bluejay Therapeutics.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Earnings results will reveal if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and positive outlook after the earnings miss.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more drops in revenue or bad guidance.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Mirum can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows more money coming in or smaller losses than before.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or less money coming in than before.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing down. Signs of growth could help Mirum.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 10%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down or stays under 10%.
Why it matters: Topline results will show if brelovitug works for chronic hepatitis delta virus. This affects future sales and pipeline strength.
Supportive ifTopline results from the brelovitug AZURE-1 study show it works well.
Worry ifTopline results from the brelovitug AZURE-1 study show it does not work well.
Why it matters: Sales growth will indicate strong demand for LIVMARLI and other products. This supports overall revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 net product sales growth of LIVMARLI exceeds 46% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net product sales growth of LIVMARLI is below 46% year over year.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision could lead to a new product launch and boost revenue.
Supportive ifThe FDA approved the NDA for zilurgisertib. This happened before the PDUFA date on September 26, 2026.
Worry ifFDA rejects the NDA or delays the decision beyond September 26, 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth will show the company is doing well. It will also support the higher sales forecast.
Supportive ifQ3 net product sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net product sales growth is below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,679 loss on $10,000 · 26.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.