Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.99-9.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.21 → 1.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MITT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments near $0.24 per share | TPG Mortgage Investment Trust keeps paying steady dividends near $0.24 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.24 | Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.24 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MITT is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a dividend and a recently announced merger, rather than a steady earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, though mixed results and elevated risk leave execution uncertain.
The evidence describes MITT as cheap versus peers, but also tags it as stretched, so those valuation signals are in tension. The estimated expectations gap is modest, and confidence in the valuation model is medium; the evidence does not show that the market assumes a clear earnings recovery.
Near term, recent financial performance has been strong relative to its industry, but earnings quality is fragile: first-quarter earnings available for distribution covered the dividend while net income turned to a loss. Management has maintained dividend growth, while the planned merger with Cherry Hill is in its early execution phase and adds a key operational task.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing the merger as expected and sustaining earnings power without cutting guidance. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove that tailwind.
Over a 1-3 year horizon, MITT’s cheap-versus-peers valuation and strong recent performance support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings and elevated risk make execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected to be at least $0.24 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.24 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.29 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.24 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.29 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “MANAGEMENT REMARKS "Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop that pressured book values across the industry, our disciplined leverage profile, consistent capital rotation into higher-returning residential investments, and continued focus on scaling profitability at Arc Home produced EAD of $0.26 for the first quarter, more than covering our recently increased $0.24 dividend" said T.J.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain price-to-earnings ratio near or below 11.2 | The stock trades cheaply with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 11. | Intact | P/E ratio rises above 11.2 sustainably | P/E (TTM): 5.75x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20265.75 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.25 → $1.20 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.25 | $97,872,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.22 | $99,806,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.21 | $96,746,467 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.20 | $95,690,500 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.