TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.80+0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MITT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -71.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MITT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
by this reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or into any filing or other docu…
Why it matters: Keeping EAD above the dividend level shows strong earnings and good financial health.
Supportive ifEAD reported above $0.24 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifEAD drops below $0.24 per share. This shows possible problems in earnings coverage.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit MITT's investment strategy and earnings.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop could mean problems with paying dividends and making money.
Worry ifQ3 Earnings Available for Distribution is less than $0.24 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 Earnings Available for Distribution is at or above $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show shifts in financial health or focus.
Watch forManagement plans to increase or keep the dividend after the merger.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend or shows doubt about future payments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,913 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is key to completing the merger. This merger is expected to enhance scale and earnings.
Supportive ifStockholder approval for the merger is obtained from both MITT and CHMI.
Worry ifStockholders of either MITT or CHMI reject the merger proposal.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows a strong focus on money management and health.
Supportive ifDividend announcement of $0.24 or higher for Q2.
Worry ifDividend announcement below $0.24 for Q2 would be a warning sign.
Why it matters: If a company keeps or raises dividends, it shows they are doing well. It also shows they care about investors.
Supportive ifThe company will raise the dividend or keep it the same next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend payment in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is driving more profits in 2026. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show an increase in earnings per share compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 earnings decline or remain flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in book value may show problems in managing assets and market issues.
Worry ifBook value per share reported below $9.97.
Less concerning ifBook value per share reported at or above $9.97.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifThe company will pay a dividend for Q2 2026. It will keep or raise the amount.
Worry ifThe company suspends or cuts the dividend payment for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects profits. If it rises, earnings may improve.
Supportive ifNet interest margin goes above 0.6%.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 0.5%. This may mean profit problems.
Why it matters: The merger is key to increasing MITT's scale and earnings power. Successful completion could enhance long-term growth.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q4 2026 if stockholders and regulators approve.
Worry ifThe merger may fail if stockholders do not approve or if there are regulatory delays.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is crucial for maintaining dividend payments and investor confidence. A strong EPS could signal improved financial health.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported above $0.24 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported below $0.24 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend is important for investor trust and stock prices. This would show financial strength.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend payment equal to or greater than $0.24 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend news or a cut in the dividend for Q3 2026.