TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.52-2.65%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MITT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -76.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MITT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
by this reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or into any filing or other docu…
Why it matters: Both shareholder votes are required to complete the deal. A failed vote could stop the planned combination.
Watch forMITT and CHMI shareholders approve the merger, and the deal closes in Q4 2026.
Also watch forEither company’s shareholders reject the merger, or the deal does not close in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The Form S-4 and joint proxy will show the full deal terms and risks. Delays or new terms could change the path to closing.
Watch forMITT files the Form S-4, and it keeps the 0.3063 share exchange ratio and $0.93 cash payment per CHMI share.
Also watch forThe filing is delayed, the exchange terms change, or a filing names a new barrier to closing.
Why it matters: EAD covered the dividend in Q2, but it fell from $0.26 in Q1 to $0.24. Lower EAD would weaken dividend coverage.
Worry ifQuarterly EAD falls below $0.24 per share, so it no longer covers the common dividend.
Less concerning ifQuarterly EAD stays at or above $0.24 per share and covers the declared common dividend.
Why it matters: The deal’s stated savings are a key test of its value. Reports of lower savings would weaken the case for better earnings.
Supportive ifAfter closing, MITT reports annual cost savings within the stated $7 million to $9 million range.
Worry ifMITT reports savings below $7 million a year or says the savings plan has been cut.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,135 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management linked Arc Home momentum to Q2 EAD. A weaker contribution could make it harder to keep EAD at $0.24 per share.
Watch forMITT reports EAD of at least $0.24 per share and says Arc Home helped support earnings.
Also watch forMITT reports EAD below $0.24 per share and says Arc Home’s earnings contribution fell.
Why it matters: Book value rose from $9.97 in Q1 to $10.00 in Q2, despite a challenging rate setting. A drop would signal pressure on the portfolio.
Worry ifMITT reports book value per share below $10.00 on November 3.
Less concerning ifMITT reports book value per share at or above $10.00 on November 3.