Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
McCormick & Company (MKC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.06-0.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.21 → 3.21 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MKC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate strong cash flow to support financing and dividends | Strong cash flow supports dividends and financing plans. | Intact | free cash flow materially below 2025 level of $962 million | Free cash flow: $112.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: strong cash flow consistent with 2026 plans. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 1, 2026112,100,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples business with a modest-growth profile and a potential margin and synergy contribution from the Unilever Foods integration. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent quality and momentum signals have improved, though earnings quality is still fragile and management execution has been volatile.
MKC trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation evidence labels it cheap and expectations as broadly aligned with the business outlook. The snapshot describes pricing as justified, with low fragility, so it does not show a large gap between expectations and current execution.
Near term, recent results and changes are mildly favorable: the company had an earnings beat, and organic sales growth has been modest but sustained. Margin expansion has been supported by cost savings and streamlined spending, while the Unilever Foods integration is still in progress; a guidance cut remains a key near-term risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on completing the Unilever Foods integration and delivering expected cost savings, alongside continued volume and pricing growth. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the near-term outlook, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, MKC has improving execution and a clear integration opportunity, but the thesis still depends on delivery amid fragile earnings quality and volatile management signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For fiscal 2026, the Company expects strong cash flow driven by profit and working capital initiatives and anticipates returning a significant portion of cash flow to shareholders through dividends.” “The transaction is expected to be accretive to McCormick’s net sales growth rate, operating margin, and adjusted EPS with mid- to high-single-digit adjusted EPS accretion anticipated within the first twelve months post-close and mid-to high-teens accretion expected in Year 3.”
Expand adjusted operating income margin by 100 to 120 basis points | Profit margins are expanding, with operating income up 30% in Q2 and margin growth guided at 100-120 basis points. | Broken | adjusted operating margin falls below 16.0% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted Operating Income: • Adjusted gross margin is expected to expand by 100 to 120 basis points from 2025.” “The Company's CCI program is continuing to fuel growth investments while also driving operating margin expansion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain organic sales growth of 1% to 3% through volume and pricing | Organic sales growth is steady at about 1.7% with pricing and volume gains. | Intact | organic sales growth falls below 1% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Current Guide - Expectations Net Sales: • Total volumes expected to be stable with increased pricing benefits relative to the prior year.” “Our advantaged categories combined with our strong year-to-date performance, including solid organic growth, margin expansion, and robust cash flow, give us confidence in our ability to deliver on our 2026 outlook.”” Revenue was $2.025 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Realize $600 million annual run rate cost synergies from Unilever Foods integration | McCormick integrates Unilever Foods well, targeting $600M cost synergies. | Intact | cost synergies fall below $600 million annual run rate | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The combined company is expected to realize approximately $600 million of annual run-rate cost synergies, net of growth reinvestments and potential dis-synergies, with approximately two-thirds expected to be achieved by Year 2 post-close.” “McCormick has announced the planned future operating model and leadership team, established a dedicated Integration Management Office, and mobilized 20 cross- functional teams comprising more than 200 employees from McCormick and Unilever Foods.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.30 → $3.21 · observed estimates
$8.18B → $8.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.30 | $8,176,255,320 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.30 | $8,183,757,809 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.29 | $8,181,636,474 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.29 | $8,181,669,807 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.29 | $8,179,558,696 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.29 | $8,179,558,696 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.29 | $8,179,558,696 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.29 | $8,178,114,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.29 | $8,178,114,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.29 | $8,178,114,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.29 | $8,178,114,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.29 | $8,178,114,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.29 | $8,179,706,819 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.24 | $8,155,658,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.21 | $8,154,768,499 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.21 | $8,154,772,309 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.