McCormick & Company (MKC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.06-0.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MKC — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-09-28
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. On September 24, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “ Audit Committee ”) of the Board of Directors of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (the “ Company ”) dismissed Ernst & Young LLP (“ EY ”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, due to the fact that EY is not expected to be considered independent with respect to the Company under the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) after the anticipated closing…
Why it matters: McCormick dismissed EY because EY may not meet independence rules after the planned deal close. The next filing can clarify the change and any reporting issues.
Watch forA filing names a new audit firm, and later reports show no delay or restatement.
Also watch forA filing reports a late report, changed results, or audit concerns that are still unresolved.
Why it matters: McCormick kept its 2026 organic sales growth guide at 1% to 3%. Results will show if price and volume can deliver that range.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 organic sales growth is 1% to 3%, within the company's guide.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 organic sales growth is below 1% or above 3%, outside the company's guide.
Why it matters: Consumer sales grew through higher prices, while volume and product mix fell. A change in volume would show whether demand is improving.
Supportive ifConsumer volume and product mix rise year over year in a reported quarter.
Worry ifConsumer volume and product mix fall year over year again, after declines of 2.5% in Q3 and 1.9% in Q2.
Why it matters: McCormick tied margin gains to CCI savings, while higher input and freight costs worked against them. The full-year result tests that balance.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin expands by 100 to 120 basis points for 2026, as guided.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin expands by less than 100 basis points, or contracts, for 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $341 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,784 loss on $10,000 · 37.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: McCormick plans to gain savings in steps after the deal closes. Reported savings will show if that plan is on track.
Supportive ifAfter close, McCormick reports savings in line with its plan to reach $600 million per year, with two-thirds by Year 2.
Worry ifAfter close, McCormick reports savings below its stated plan or pushes back the timing.