McCormick & Company (MKC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.08-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
MKC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-28
Director — Anne Bramnan: A board member is resigning to take a senior executive role at another company, which is a genuine departure but not a shock to the company's operational management.
Why it matters: Lower operating income growth may mean rising costs and problems with profits.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 16%.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth was above 20%.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is crucial for returning value to shareholders. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifManagement reports strong cash flow. This allows for big dividend payments to shareholders.
Worry ifWeak cash flow limits the ability to pay cash back to shareholders.
Why it matters: Strong results from McCormick de Mexico can support the acquisition plan and boost growth.
Supportive ifManagement says McCormick de Mexico adds more than 13% to total sales growth.
Worry ifMcCormick de Mexico's share is less than 11% of total sales growth.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and pricing power. This shows the company can stay profitable.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 38.6% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 37.8% for Q2 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,578 loss on $10,000 · 35.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below expectations may show profit problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share reported below $3.05.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings per share reported above $3.13.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow will support dividend payments and future growth investments.
Supportive ifManagement reports strong cash flow that matches plans for 2026.
Worry ifManagement says cash flow is below expectations or not steady.
Why it matters: A higher operating income margin shows better cost control. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income margin is more than 14%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income margin is less than 12%.
Why it matters: This may show problems in managing costs and increasing profits.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income growth was below 16% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted operating income growth was above 20% for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate indicates McCormick's ability to drive volume and pricing effectively. It is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth is 3% or higher. This shows good pricing and volume plans.
Worry ifIf organic sales growth is below 1%, it shows trouble in boosting sales.
Why it matters: This margin growth shows good cost control and efficiency. These are key for making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income margin grows by at least 100 basis points by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIf margin growth is less than 100 basis points, it shows operational problems.