MarketWise, Inc. (MKTW)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04

$21.73+1.78%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MarketWise, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-33.6% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.45 → 1.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MKTW yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow reaches at least $50 million in FY 2026	It plans $50M free cash flow.	Intact	Free cash flow remains negative or below $30 million in FY 2026	Free cash flow: $22.394M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202622,394,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $300 million in FY 2026	A primary condition in MarketWise, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $300 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $250 million in FY 2026	Revenue: $75.808M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $300 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202675,808,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stock repurchase program of up to $50 million is executed	The company reauthorized a $50M stock buyback.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or not used at all in FY 2026	Buyback reauthorized $50M vs ongoing target May 7, 2026 8-K confirms reauthorization of up to $50M stock repurchase program. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.62

$2.54 → $1.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.34B

$0.33B → $0.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-02	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-07	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-08	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-09	$2.54	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-12	$2.63	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.63	$330,023,760	3 / 3
2026-08-14	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-15	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-16	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-17	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-18	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-19	$2.54	$328,524,123	2 / 2
2026-08-20	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-21	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-22	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-23	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-24	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-25	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-26	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-27	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-28	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-29	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-30	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-08-31	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-01	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-02	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-03	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-04	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-05	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-06	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-07	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-08	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-09	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-10	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-11	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-12	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-13	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-14	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-15	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-16	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-17	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-18	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-19	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-20	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-21	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-22	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-23	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-24	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-25	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-26	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-27	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-28	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-29	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-09-30	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-01	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-02	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-03	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-04	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-05	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-06	$2.45	$340,023,757	2 / 2
2026-10-07	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-08	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-09	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-10	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-11	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-12	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-13	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-14	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-15	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-16	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-17	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-18	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-19	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-20	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-21	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-22	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-23	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-24	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-25	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-26	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-27	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-28	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-29	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-30	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-10-31	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-11-01	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-11-02	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-11-03	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2
2026-11-04	$1.62	$343,798,403	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	0	1	0
2026-07-01	0	1	0
2026-08-01	0	1	0
2026-09-01	0	1	0
2026-10-01	0	1	0
2026-11-01	0	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow reaches at least $50 million in FY 2026Free cash flow: $22.394M
Revenue reaches at least $300 million in FY 2026Revenue: $75.808M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MarketWise, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is progressing toward its billings and cash-flow goals, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into MarketWise, Inc.

MKTW trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence describes its valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is elevated and the priced-in assessment is unjustified, suggesting the valuation may assume more resilience or execution than recent results support.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, erratic earnings results and three recent earnings misses leave a high risk of another miss; a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. For FY 2026, management is on track with its $330 million billings and $50 million operating cash-flow goals, while the dividend target is stable but mixed; recent momentum has improved, though it remains below the industry cohort.

What MarketWise, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering its FY 2026 targets and improving execution without another guidance cut. Near-term sector support could continue if major financial-sector peers keep reporting strong results and raising guidance, while rate cuts are identified as a sector headwind.