MarketWise, Inc. (MKTW)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.64+2.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKTW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 65.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MKTW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, MarketWise, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the earnings press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is herein incorporated by reference. The foregoing information (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Why it matters: Changes to dividends can affect how investors feel. They may show the company's financial health.
Watch forDividends remain at $1.80 per share for FY 2026.
Also watch forDividends are cut below $1.80 per share for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Management raised Billings guidance to $330 million. This shows strong growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms FY 2026 Billings of $330 million in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifManagement lowered FY 2026 Billings guidance from $330 million. This is a negative sign.
Why it matters: A big drop in net revenue shows problems with cash flow and keeping subscribers.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, net revenue was below $72 million. This is a drop of over 5%.
Less concerning ifNet revenue stabilizes or grows year over year, exceeding $75.8 million.
Why it matters: Billings growth is important for MarketWise's finances. Slower growth may mean problems with getting or keeping customers.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Billings growth below 10% year over year would indicate a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 Billings growth above 10% year over year would confirm continued strong performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $455 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,400 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt MarketWise's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for the financial sector drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above its median level.
Why it matters: Cash flow guidance shows how well the company runs. Changes can affect future growth.
Watch forManagement confirms that cash flow from operations for FY 2026 will be $50 million.
Also watch forManagement lowers the cash flow from operations guidance for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Fewer Paid Subscribers might mean issues with keeping customers. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifPaid Subscribers decline from 400 thousand in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPaid Subscribers increase from 400 thousand in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show trouble with managing costs and investments.
Worry ifCFFO reported below $20 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCFFO is over $22.4 million. This shows strong cash generation from operations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its financial targets. This impacts investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows net revenue of $75 million or better.
Less concerning ifNet revenue falls below $75 million in the Q2 2026 earnings report.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments mean a company is stable. It also shows they care about their shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends paid in Q3 2026 remain at $0.45 per share.
Worry ifDividends paid in Q3 2026 drop below $0.45 per share.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for MarketWise's stability. A drop may show trouble with costs or income.
Worry ifIf Q3 2026 Cash Flow from Operations is below $12 million, it may show problems.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 2026 Cash Flow from Operations is above $12 million, it shows good cash management.
Why it matters: A good repurchase program shows that management trusts the company's value. It can help the share price.
Supportive ifIf they announce more shares bought back under the $50 million program, it shows they are acting.
Worry ifIf no more share repurchases are announced, it may show a lack of confidence in the stock.