Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Mesa Laboratories, Inc. (MLAB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$119.30-5.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.88 → 10.88 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MLAB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt with credit facility below $110 million | A supporting condition in Mesa Laboratories, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=110 million USD debt outstanding. | Intact | debt exceeds $110 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MLAB is a smaller-cap growth business with a multi-year view that depends on steady execution, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The thesis is intact, but recent momentum has weakened and the overall risk level is elevated.
The evidence labels MLAB cheap versus peers, while also showing a 57% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.13, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not specify exactly what growth or earnings expectations the market assumes.
Near term, management has delivered 0.4% core organic growth in 1Q27 and 3.4% organic growth for FY2026, while leverage improved to 1.85. Momentum has fallen, restructuring was noted, and the company has a run of earnings misses, so the next guidance update is an important risk. Over the multi-year view, continued growth and debt reduction would support the thesis, but the evidence for a broader sustained growth trend is limited.
The near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. A favorable scenario would involve rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies, which may support the sector. Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether MLAB can sustain organic growth while keeping leverage below its stated threshold.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, supported by recent growth and lower leverage, but weaker momentum and repeated earnings misses make execution the main test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share estimates rose to $11.62 for fiscal 2027. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $11.6 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 3% organic revenue growth | A primary condition in Mesa Laboratories, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% organic revenue growth. | Broken | organic revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margin supporting PE near 20 | The company has a strong profit margin with a PE of 19.7, well below peers. | Intact | PE rises above 30 without margin improvement | P/E (TTM): 15.96x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202615.9585 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.36 → $10.88 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.27 | $272,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.27 | $270,566,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.36 | $272,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.75 | $267,267,533 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.88 | $266,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.88 | $270,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.