Mesa Laboratories, Inc. (MLAB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$127.78-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MLAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MLAB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: BPD revenues are critical for overall growth. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifBPD revenues decline more than 20% year over year in 1Q27.
Less concerning ifBPD revenues stabilize or grow year over year in 1Q27.
Why it matters: Sales are improving. This is important for growth in the future.
Supportive ifRevenues grow from $60,138 in 1Q27 to above $65 million in 3Q26.
Worry ifRevenues decline or stay below $60,138 in 3Q26.
Why it matters: Management plans to provide guidance on future performance. This will clarify their growth strategy.
Watch forManagement expects good results for H1 on August 4, 2026.
Also watch forManagement expects cautious or bad results for H1 on August 4, 2026.
Why it matters: This review may lead to new strategies and guidance, impacting future performance.
Watch forManagement shares new plans or advice after the review.
Also watch forNo new strategies or guidance are announced after the review.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $502 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,417 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paying off debt can make the company's finances stronger. It can also lower leverage.
Supportive ifMesa repays over $10 million in debt during FY27.
Worry ifMesa repays less than $5 million in debt during FY27.
Why it matters: The earnings report will give updates on revenue trends and future plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and positive guidance for FY27.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue drops and negative guidance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a weakening trend in the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below its median value for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median value for the sector.
Why it matters: Confirming 3.4% organic revenue growth for FY2026 shows Mesa Labs is on track with its growth goals.
Supportive ifManagement says organic revenue grew by 3.4% for FY2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts FY2026 organic revenue growth from 3.4%.
Why it matters: Returning to positive core organic growth is key for Mesa's recovery. This signals better business health.
Supportive ifCore organic revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore organic revenue growth remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in sales shows better demand and operations. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenues exceed $65.13 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenues fall below $65.13 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Less debt helps financial health and flexibility. It supports Mesa's plans for growth.
Supportive ifTotal Net Leverage Ratio drops below 2.0 after Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal Net Leverage Ratio remains above 2.0 after Q3 2026.