Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp
Monro, Inc. (MNRO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.31-6.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MNRO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share | The company pays a steady $0.28 quarterly dividend. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.28 per share quarterly in FY27 Q1 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “New Credit Facilities On October 23, 2026, the Company entered into a new credit agreement with Ares Capital Corporation, providing for $375.0 million in senior secured credit facilities, consisting of a $250.0 million term loan facility and a $125.0 million revolving credit facility, both maturing on October 23, 2030 (the “New Credit Facilities”), with fees commensurate with a private lending facility.” “First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Cash Dividend On June 16, 2026, the Company paid a cash dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 of $.28 per share.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround-style business thesis, with robust earnings quality but mixed execution and recent financial performance. The thesis is in a watch state: momentum improved after the latest earnings, but company quality declined and the broader financial trajectory remains weak.
MNRO is expensive versus peers, with a 42% peer premium, even though the valuation model points to a modestly negative expectations gap and has low confidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show that market expectations are unusually fragile.
Near term, results remain uneven: third-quarter revenue and operating income were below the year-earlier quarter, and comparable store sales fell 1.8%. Management has reported early improvement in some stores, but its operating initiatives, sales efforts, and store closures have yet to show broad progress; an earnings beat on October 29 improved momentum, while the next report remains a watch point.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on whether operational changes lift store performance and comparable sales enough to improve the overall financial trajectory. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength among bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or GDP growth below 2% would pose added risk.
The multi-year view is an uncertain operational recovery, not a demonstrated improvement trend. Expensive peer-relative valuation and elevated risk make execution and the consumer backdrop central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating loss to less than $5 million | Operating loss improved from $23.8M to $5.2M. | Under Pressure | operating loss exceeds -5 million USD in FY26 Q4 | Operating income: $2.591M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= -5 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20262,591,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow revenue to at least -2% year over year | A primary condition in Monro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | revenue decline worse than -2% YoY in FY27 | Revenue growth: -1.83% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -2% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-1.826149 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Close underperforming stores to improve profits | A supporting condition in Monro, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is continue closures through FY27. | Intact | no progress in closing underperforming stores by FY27 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the second quarter of fiscal 2027, the Company closed one store.” “This was primarily driven by a reduction in sales of $9.0 million from the closure of 145 underperforming stores in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, as well as a 1.7% decrease in comparable store sales from continuing store locations.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.59 → $-0.02 · observed estimates
$1.19B → $1.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.59 | $1,194,635,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.59 | $1,194,635,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.58 | $1,192,819,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.58 | $1,192,819,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.58 | $1,192,819,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.58 | $1,192,819,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.58 | $1,192,819,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.47 | $1,187,197,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.41 | $1,187,710,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.40 | $1,185,966,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.40 | $1,185,962,373 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.43 | $1,184,525,573 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.43 | $1,184,525,573 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.43 | $1,184,525,573 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.43 | $1,184,525,573 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.43 | $1,184,590,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.13 | $1,178,296,019 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.02 | $1,178,564,219 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.02 | $1,178,573,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.02 | $1,178,573,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.02 | $1,178,573,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.02 | $1,178,573,200 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.