Monro, Inc. (MNRO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.29+5.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Stabilize or grow revenue to at least -2% year over year: rev -4.6% vs -2%.
Monro is cutting costs and closing bad stores. Operating loss improved from $23.8M to $5.2M. The company pays a steady $0.28 quarterly dividend. These show progress in fixing the business.
Sales fell 7.2% last year. Earnings missed badly with a loss of $0.16 per share. Analysts cut profit estimates recently. The company still loses money and faces tough competition.
The stock trades 28% above our fair value near $13. Analysts expect only 2% revenue growth. We see the price as too high given weak recent results.
Breaks if: dividend falls below $0.28 per share quarterly in FY27 Q1
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share as a key capital allocation priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth thesis with a medium confidence level. The current state reflects volatility in management and mixed recent financial performance, suggesting uncertainty in the near term.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that the market anticipates slightly lower performance. The current pricing reflects a justified premium, but there is a divergence from industry expectations.
Fundamentals may show mixed progress as management focuses on improving operating income and maintaining dividends. However, recent comparable store sales declines and a higher probability of missing earnings add risk to the outlook.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers like GPC, BWA, and ALSN. Positive momentum in the Consumer Discretionary sector could support MNRO, while negative signals from these peers could pose challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has raised concerns about performance. This miss indicates that financial results are not meeting expectations, which could impact future growth.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board declared and paid a consistent quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for Q4 2026, Q1 2027, and Q2 2027. This steady dividend payment reflects management's consistent capital allocation focus and is delivering as committed.
“Approved first quarter fiscal 2027 cash dividend of $.28 per share.”
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $.28 per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2027.”
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $.28 per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2027.”
Breaks if: operating loss exceeds -5 million USD in FY26 Q4
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and operational improvements.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved from a loss of $6.1M in 2025-Q1 to a positive $3.7M in 2026-Q2, and from a $23.8M loss in 2025-Q4 to a $5.2M loss in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering progress on operating income improvement.
“Operating income for Q1 fiscal 2027 was $3.7 million, compared to an operating loss of $6.1 million prior year.”
“Operating loss for Q4 fiscal 2026 was $5.2 million, improved from $23.8 million loss prior year.”
“Operating income for fiscal 2026 was $20.0 million, up from $12.6 million prior year.”
Breaks if: revenue decline worse than -2% YoY in FY27
Breaks if: no progress in closing underperforming stores by FY27
Continue closing underperforming stores to improve overall profitability and operational efficiency.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MNRO's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector headwinds and improve its financial metrics. Not investment advice.