Monro, Inc. (MNRO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.29+5.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MNRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MNRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Monro, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Why it matters: Updates on store closures will show if Monro is managing weak locations well.
Worry ifThere is an announcement of more store closures. This is in addition to the 145 already closed.
Less concerning ifNo new store closures were announced. This shows stability in weak locations.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Monro's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled on September 8, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Keeping the cash dividend shows strong finances and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a cash dividend of $0.28 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe Board does not declare a cash dividend for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Monro's sales. Positive trends could boost performance.
Watch forConsumer spending goes up in the retail sales report on September 16, 2026.
Also watch forConsumer spending goes down in the retail sales report on September 16, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $534 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,208 loss on $10,000 · 52.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This data affects consumer spending. It is key for Monro's sales.
Watch forGDP growth is reported above 2% in the second estimate.
Also watch forGDP growth is reported below 1% in the second estimate.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well the company is fixing its problems.
Watch forManagement will share good news about the improvement plan in Q2 earnings.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news about the improvement plan during Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: The closure of underperforming stores can reduce costs but may also lower sales. Monitoring this balance is crucial.
Watch forSales impact from store closures is less than $9 million in Q2 fiscal 2027.
Also watch forSales impact from store closures exceeds $9 million in Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Improved comparable store sales would signal better customer traffic and spending. This is crucial for Monro's growth.
Supportive ifComparable store sales growth turns positive year over year in Q2 2027.
Worry ifComparable store sales continue to decline year over year in Q2 2027.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a change in the growth phase of the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the last 12 months.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the last 12 months.
Why it matters: Updates on store closures will show if Monro is managing its locations well.
Worry ifManagement says they closed more weak stores. This helped overall sales.
Less concerning ifReports show weak stores still have problems. More closures happen without any improvement.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. It also means more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up each year, over 1.7% of sales.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays below 1.7% of sales.
Why it matters: News about store closures will show how well Monro is working to make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says they will close more underperforming stores. This is in addition to the 145 already closed.
Worry ifNo new store closures were announced. This shows that operational improvements are not moving forward.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Monro is cutting costs and making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2027 is positive and higher than $3.7 million.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative or below $3.7 million in Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Changes in the Producer Price Index can affect how much people spend and inflation. This can impact Monro's sales.
Watch forThe Producer Price Index is down, which shows lower inflation.
Also watch forThe Producer Price Index is up, which shows rising inflation.